Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 22

Date: 18 July 2025, Friday


	Port Melbourne Sharks		Dandenong Thunder

	1	X	2
				Watch
	5.5	4.6	1.44
	4.85	4.25	1.5	Watch
	5.09	4.79	1.56
	4.74	4.70	1.53	Watch
	5.5	4.2	1.44
	5.68	4.3	1.45	Watch
	6.41	4.95	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.4 ↓ (6.26)	4.54 ↓ (4.95)	1.47 ↑ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Port Melbourne Sharks
17%

Draw
20.3%

Dandenong Thunder
62.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.5%

18.3%

67.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.1%

17.7%

69.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Port Melbourne Sharks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Dandenong Thunder has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Melbourne Sharks than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dandenong Thunder than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dandenong Thunder could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Port Melbourne Sharks - Dandenong Thunder Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
59', 0 - 1, Jalloh H. ⚽,
60', Gillingham W. 🟥,
66', 0 - 2, Edwards A. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 13 in the zone Relegation ~ Victoria Premier League and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Port Melbourne won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Dandenong Thunder is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Port Melbourne won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 30:18. (average 2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Port Melbourne won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:6. (average 1.9:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Port Melbourne Sharks
Australian NPL Victoria
06.07.25	Preston Lions - Port Melbourne Sharks	5:0 ✺
27.06.25	Port Melbourne Sharks - St Albans Dinamo	0:2 ✺
23.06.25	Melbourne Victory Youth - Port Melbourne Sharks	1:2 ✺
13.06.25	Port Melbourne Sharks - Melbourne Knights	2:2 ✺
06.06.25	Green Gully - Port Melbourne Sharks	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 LLWTT
- Dandenong Thunder
Australian NPL Victoria
05.07.25	Dandenong Thunder - Oakleigh Cannons	3:3 ✺
28.06.25	Avondale - Dandenong Thunder	1:1 ✺
22.06.25	South Melbourne - Dandenong Thunder	0:1 ✺
13.06.25	Heidelberg United - Dandenong Thunder	2:0 ✺
07.06.25	Dandenong Thunder - Altona Magic	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
05.04.25	Dandenong Thunder - Port Melbourne Sharks	5:1
13.07.24	Dandenong Thunder - Port Melbourne Sharks	3:1
13.04.24	Port Melbourne Sharks - Dandenong Thunder	3:0
24.06.23	Port Melbourne Sharks - Dandenong Thunder	0:0
25.03.23	Dandenong Thunder - Port Melbourne Sharks	2:6
18.06.22	Dandenong Thunder - Port Melbourne Sharks	0:2
19.03.22	Port Melbourne Sharks - Dandenong Thunder	1:0

Port Melbourne Sharks - Dandenong Thunder: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide