Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 19

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Lakeside Stadium (Melbourne)


	South Melbourne		Dandenong Thunder

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.10	9.25	17.50
	1.09	7.90	14.50
	1.10	9.45	15.00
	1.18	7.92	10.77	Watch
	1.08	9.35	13.00
	1.08	8.80	14.20	Watch
	1.10	8.00	15.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.1 ↓ (1.22)	8.67 ↑ (7.04)	14.28 ↑ (9.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Melbourne
83%

Draw
10.6%

Dandenong Thunder
6.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

76.6%

13.3%

10.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Melbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in South Melbourne's performance.

Dandenong Thunder has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

South Melbourne - Dandenong Thunder Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 and 13 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, South Melbourne won 2.

South Melbourne is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Dandenong Thunder is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Dandenong Thunder may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, South Melbourne is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, South Melbourne won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 36:16. (average 2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, South Melbourne won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:4. (average 2.4:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Melbourne FC
Australian NPL Victoria
28.06.26	South Melbourne - Green Gully	1:2 ✺
19.06.26	Bentleigh Greens - South Melbourne	1:5 ✺
07.06.26	South Melbourne - Altona Magic	2:3 ✺
30.05.26	Hume City - South Melbourne	1:1 ✺
25.05.26	South Melbourne - Avondale	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWLTL
- Dandenong Thunder
Australian NPL Victoria
27.06.26	Dandenong Thunder - Hume City	1:3 ✺
20.06.26	Avondale - Dandenong Thunder	11:0 ✺
06.06.26	Dandenong Thunder - Caroline Springs George Cross	2:3 ✺
29.05.26	Heidelberg United - Dandenong Thunder	4:2 ✺
24.05.26	Melbourne City Youth - Dandenong Thunder	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
21.03.26	Dandenong Thunder - South Melbourne	3:0
22.06.25	South Melbourne - Dandenong Thunder	0:1
15.03.25	Dandenong Thunder - South Melbourne	1:0
07.07.24	South Melbourne - Dandenong Thunder	1:0
06.04.24	Dandenong Thunder - South Melbourne	1:2
11.06.23	South Melbourne - Dandenong Thunder	3:2
11.03.23	Dandenong Thunder - South Melbourne	0:1

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