Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 15

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday


	Progresso		Lentigione

	1	X	2
	3.45	3.15	1.98
	3.46	3.33	1.99	Watch
	3.64	3.43	1.98
	3.4	3.14	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↑ (2.78)	3.26 ↓ (3.47)	2 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Progresso
26.2%

Draw
28%

Lentigione
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

26.4%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

25.6%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Progresso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Progresso's form might have worsened.

Lentigione has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progresso than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Progresso, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lentigione than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Progresso - Lentigione Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', 0 - 1, Nanni L. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Serie D ~ Group D (Play Out: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group D (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Progresso won 1.

In recent matches, Progresso has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lentigione is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lentigione could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Progresso won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 5:13. (average 0.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Progresso won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Lentigione - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 40.69%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SCD Progresso Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group D
30.11.25	Correggese - Progresso	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Progresso - Tuttocuoio	2:1 ✺
16.11.25	Pro Palazzolo - Progresso	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Progresso - Piacenza	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Sangiuliano City Nova - Progresso	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWLTL
- Lentigione Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group D
30.11.25	Tuttocuoio - Lentigione	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Lentigione - Sasso Marconi	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Piacenza - Lentigione	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Lentigione - Correggese	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Pistoiese - Lentigione	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group D
12.04.25	Lentigione - Progresso	3:0
01.12.24	Progresso - Lentigione	0:1
10.03.24	Lentigione - Progresso	1:0
01.11.23	Progresso - Lentigione	0:2
13.03.22	Progresso - Lentigione	3:0
31.10.21	Lentigione - Progresso	2:0
07.02.21	Lentigione - Progresso	1:1

Progresso - Lentigione: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide