Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 9

Date: 9 May 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Diaguita (Ovalle)


	Provincial Ovalle		Deportes Linares

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.35	4.5
	1.78	3.47	4.22
	1.74	3.47	4.44	Watch
	1.67	3.38	4.89
	1.72	3.35	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (2.09)	3.4 ↑ (3.18)	4.51 ↑ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Provincial Ovalle
52.9%

Draw
26.8%

Deportes Linares
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

28.8%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

29.3%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Provincial Ovalle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Provincial Ovalle's performance.

Deportes Linares has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportes Linares might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Provincial Ovalle than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Provincial Ovalle that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Linares than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportes Linares could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Provincial Ovalle - Deportes Linares Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Provincial Ovalle will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Abarzua F. (G) 24. Avila M. 20. Bobadilla S. 22. Bravo D. 2. Bravo S. 28. Harding G. 14. Monardes D. 18. Mundaca K. 5. Rivera N. 27. Serrano K. 16. Solano B.	1. Castillo C. (G) 21. Aros Malgarejo J. 20. Bravo B. 10. Droguett B. 9. Duma C. 14. Figueroa B. 17. Fuentes D. 24. Penaloza S. 3. Rojas F. 22. Tati D. 18. Vallejos D. (C)
Substitutes
23. Barrios N. 10. Becerra M. 15. Cortes A. 26. Meneses M. 4. Navarrete E. 12. Orellana G. (G) 8. Pavez J.	23. Aravena S. (G) 11. Gama Olivera W. P. 2. Gonzalez F. 5. Latorre C. 6. Molina J. 7. Toro H. 13. Valdivia Tello F. G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', Penaloza S. 🟨,
15', 🟨,
17', 0 - 1, Vallejos D. ⚽,
21', Serrano K. 🟨,
36', Mundaca K. 🟨,
40', Duma C. 🟨,
40', 🟥,
40', 🟨,
45', 1 - 1, Solano B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Monardes D. ↓, Cortes B. ↑,
66', 🟨,
66', Solano B. 🟥,
70', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda Division (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda Division (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In recent matches, Ovalle has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Deportes Linares is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ovalle might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ovalle won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Ovalle won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Provincial Ovalle FC
Chilean Segunda Division
03.05.25	Deportes Puerto Montt - Provincial Ovalle	2:0 ✺
27.04.25	Concón National - Provincial Ovalle	0:3 ✺
17.04.25	Provincial Ovalle - Deportes Melipilla	1:2 ✺
06.04.25	General Velásquez - Provincial Ovalle	1:2 ✺
29.03.25	Provincial Ovalle - Provincial Osorno	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LWLWW
- Deportes Linares
Chilean Segunda Division
03.05.25	Deportes Linares - Deportes Melipilla	2:1 ✺
27.04.25	General Velásquez - Deportes Linares	1:1 ✺
17.04.25	Deportes Linares - Provincial Osorno	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Santiago City - Deportes Linares	2:3 ✺
29.03.25	Deportes Linares - Brujas Salamanca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Segunda Division
07.09.24	Provincial Ovalle - Deportes Linares	2:1
27.04.24	Deportes Linares - Provincial Ovalle	2:0

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