Match Info

NIFL Championship - Round 11

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished


	Rathfriland Rangers		Armagh City

	1	X	2
	1.93	3.50	3.10
	1.92	3.55	3.3
	1.97	3.45	3.04
	1.99	3.74	3.16	Watch
	1.93	3.35	2.95
	1.92	3.48	3.33
	1.93	3.65	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.75)	3.53 ↓ (3.94)	3.16 ↓ (3.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rathfriland Rangers
46.2%

Draw
25.4%

Armagh City
28.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

52.6%

23.4%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9%

22.8%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rathfriland Rangers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rathfriland Rangers's form might have worsened.

Armagh City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rathfriland Rangers than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rathfriland Rangers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Armagh City than the current prediction. (-5%)

Rathfriland Rangers - Armagh City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)

Preview

A dramatic battle between two struggling sides fighting for survival points (ranked 15th in the NIFL Championship (Relegation Group: ) and 16th in the NIFL Championship (Relegation Group: )).

Neither team has been performing at its best in recent fixtures.

Recently, Armagh has had a run of games away from home.

Rathfriland carries the favorite tag into this contest.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Rathfriland	12	4	0	8	12:23	-11	12
16	Armagh	13	0	6	7	11:22	-11	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rathfriland Rangers
Northern Irish Championship
03.10.26	Harland & Wolff Welders - Rathfriland Rangers	1:3 ✺
25.09.26	Rathfriland Rangers - Warrenpoint Town	0:2 ✺
12.09.26	Ards - Rathfriland Rangers	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Rathfriland Rangers - Institute FC	0:2 ✺
28.08.26	Glenavon - Rathfriland Rangers	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27 WLLLL
- Armagh City
Northern Irish Championship
02.10.26	Strabane Athletic - Armagh City	0:0 ✺
26.09.26	Armagh City - Dundela	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Loughgall - Armagh City	0:0 ✺
04.09.26	Newry City - Armagh City	2:2 ✺
28.08.26	Moyola Park - Armagh City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 TLTTL

Rathfriland Rangers - Armagh City