Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 35

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta (Avilés)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Real Avilés		CD Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.2	3.4
	2.02	3.25	3.4
	2.04	3.32	3.7
	2.02	3.38	3.58	Watch
	1.95	3	3.4
	2.04	3.35	3.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.97)	3.25 ↓ (3.36)	3.51 ↓ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Avilés
45.7%

Draw
28.2%

CD Guadalajara
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

27.7%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

27%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

CD Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CD Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Real Avilés - CD Guadalajara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Almodovar N. (G) 26. Menendez O. 24. Lopez A. 5. Babin J. 15. Chukwuma E. 14. Cayarga B. 8. Bautista K. 16. Gomez A. 17. Bari Q. 21. Uzkudun A. 9. Santamaria A.	1. Zarco A. (G) 5. Gallardo D. 4. Ablanque J. 23. Casado J. 16. Cadete 18. Martinez J. 11. Alvarez U. 20. Miki 14. Tavares R. 7. Neskes 10. Amigo D.
Substitutes
20. Campabadal E. 10. Cueto J. 3. Diaz V. 1. Fernandez A. (G) 18. Gete A. 12. Grigore R. 22. Isi Ros 7. Luis Alcalde 2. Ortega G. 19. Poquet N. 23. Rivera C. 11. Rubio R.	32. Delgado A. 3. Moreno A. 19. Munoz P. 21. Perero G. 2. Perez L. 15. Rodriguez V. 6. Rojo P. 22. Samuel 13. Vicente D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Amigo D. ⚽,
9', 1 - 1, Lopez A. ⚽,
29', Cadete 🟨,
30', Chukwuma E. 🟨,
33', Bari Q. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Chukwuma E. ↓, Ortega G. ↑,
50', Ablanque J. 🟨,
57', Martinez J. 🟨,
65', Neskes ↓, Perez L. ↑,
65', Cadete ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
66', Martinez J. ↓, Munoz P. ↑,
70', Santamaria A. ↓, Luis Alcalde ↑,
70', Bari Q. ↓, Rubio R. ↑,
78', Tavares R. ↓, Samuel ↑,
86', 2 - 1, Bautista K. ⚽,
87', Miki ↓, Delgado A. ↑,
90', Bautista K. ↓, Gete A. ↑,
90', Cayarga B. ↓, Diaz V. ↑,
90+1', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,
90+7', Gomez A. 🟨,
90+7', 2 - 2, Alvarez U. (Penalty Awarded),
90+9', 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

In recent matches, Real Avilés has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Guadalajara is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Real Avilés may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Real Avilés is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Real Avilés won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Real Aviles	6	1	2	3	9:10	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Real Avilés - the odds 1.97 are the expected chance of winning is 47.17%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.04.26	Ferrol - Real Avilés	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Real Avilés - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Osasuna B - Real Avilés	0:1 ✺
05.04.26	Real Avilés - Ourense CF	2:1 ✺
28.03.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Real Avilés	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TTWWL
- CD Guadalajara
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
24.04.26	Cacereño - CD Guadalajara	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	CD Guadalajara - Pontevedra	1:4 ✺
12.04.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - CD Guadalajara	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	CD Guadalajara - Ferrol	1:0 ✺
29.03.26	Osasuna B - CD Guadalajara	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
05.10.25	CD Guadalajara - Real Avilés	3:4

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