Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 1

Date: 31 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Román Suárez Puerta (Avilés)


	Real Avilés		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.2	2.2
	2.9	3	2.2
	3	3.1	2.28
	3.15	3.1	2.29
	6.42	3.93	1.50	Watch
	3.11	3	2.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.58 ↑ (3.1)	3.22 ↑ (3.1)	2.14 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Avilés
26.4%

Draw
29.3%

Ponferradina
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.5%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Ponferradina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (-1%)

Real Avilés - Ponferradina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fernandez A. (G) 20. Campabadal E. 5. Babin J. 16. Gomez A. 3. Diaz V. 17. Bari Q. 18. Gete A. 8. Bautista K. 7. Hernandez R. 14. Cayarga B. 11. Rubio R.	13. Jimenez A. (G) 21. Moreno D. 3. Novoa G. 4. Moltenis B. 19. Lopez A. 5. Undabarrena E. 8. Aguilar Elizalde E. 20. Ferrer P. 14. Fernandez X. 10. Valle B. 18. Vazquez B.
Substitutes
13. Almodovar N. (G) 21. Alvarez P. 15. Chukwuma E. 10. Cueto J. 23. El Arbaoui Y. 22. Isi Ros 30. Pelaez H. 19. Poquet N. 9. Santamaria A.	25. Barredo P. (G) 30. Bruno 9. Cortes J. 16. Frimpong E. 23. Jorrin M. 17. Keita A. 26. Kysil 11. Mula A. 6. San Emeterio F. 7. Sergio Benito 15. Sousa V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
3', 0 - 1, Vazquez B. ⚽,
11', 🟨,
31', 0 - 2, Valle B. ⚽,
43', 0 - 3, Ferrer P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Rubio R. ↓, Santamaria A. ↑,
61', Cayarga B. ↓, Cueto J. ↑,
61', Bari Q. ↓, Isi Ros ↑,
70', Gete A. ↓, Alvarez P. ↑,
72', Undabarrena E. ↓, Keita A. ↑,
72', Fernandez X. ↓, San Emeterio F. ↑,
77', Valle B. ↓, Mula A. ↑,
77', Vazquez B. ↓, Cortes J. ↑,
79', 🟨,
82', Ferrer P. ↓, Sergio Benito ↑,
83', 🟨,
83', Campabadal E. ↓, Poquet N. ↑,

Preview

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Real Avilés may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Real Avilés won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Real Avilés - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 29.52%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Avilés
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Marino de Luanco - Real Avilés	0:2 ✺
09.08.25	Mosconia - Real Avilés	3:0 ✺
06.08.25	Real Avilés - Leonesa	2:2 ✺
30.07.25	Real Avilés - Sporting de Gijón	0:1 ✺
23.07.25	Racing Santander - Real Avilés	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLTLL
- SD Ponferradina
Club Friendly
23.08.25	Ponferradina - Athletic Bilbao B	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Ferrol - Ponferradina	1:1 ✺
13.08.25	Ponferradina - Lugo	3:2 ✺
09.08.25	Ponferradina - Valladolid B	0:2 ✺
19.07.25	Athletic Bilbao - Ponferradina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
02.08.23	Ponferradina - Real Avilés	0:0

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