Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 2

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ponferradina		Lugo

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.10	3.70
	1.88	2.95	3.90
	1.93	2.95	3.85
	2.00	3.01	4.28
	1.94	3.19	4.15	Watch
	1.95	2.90	4.25
	1.90	2.94	4.30
	1.94	2.95	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.8)	3 ↓ (3.37)	4.02 ↓ (4.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
47%

Draw
30.4%

Lugo
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

27.6%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

29.4%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponferradina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Ponferradina - Lugo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dominguez A. (G) 22. Hernandez E. 5. Undabarrena E. (C) 4. Jelbat A. 3. Nieto S. 7. Calderon C. 6. San Emeterio F. 8. Molina A. 19. Munoz P. 12. Sabroso U. 21. Faye S.	25. Embadje F. (G) 19. Lucero R. 4. Garriz I. 5. Moreno P. 3. Haro P. 20. Ulloa A. 15. Parrilla P. 14. Gallar A. (C) 6. Presa K. 17. Chiqui 21. Berzal G.
Substitutes
13. Alvin (G) 2. Andujar D. 14. Aranda J. L. 11. Bari Q. 17. Chibozo J. 18. de Leon J. 27. Iriarte X. 24. Koke 20. Macazaga L. 23. Roig A. 16. Tounkara N. 10. Valle B.	13. Candal J. (G) 9. Costa A. 11. Dauda M. 18. Hermoso K. 1. Martinez M. (G) 22. Munoz M. 23. Pascual H. 8. Perera A. 2. Sanchez Martinez A. N. 26. Vega U.
Coaches
Nafti M.	Borja Fernandez

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Faye S. 🟨,
58', Berzal G. ↓, Dauda M. ↑,
64', Sabroso U. ↓, Bari Q. ↑,
64', Munoz P. ↓, Chibozo J. ↑,
71', Presa K. ↓, Costa A. ↑,
71', Gallar A. ↓, Sanchez Martinez A. N. ↑,
74', Calderon C. ↓, Valle B. ↑,
74', Molina A. ↓, Tounkara N. ↑,
84', Nieto S. ↓, Roig A. ↑,
87', Chiqui ↓, Perera A. ↑,
90+3', Perera A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 3.

Recent performances by Ponferradina have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lugo is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Ponferradina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ponferradina is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 24:13. (average 1.2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponferradina won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugo	6	5	1	0	9:3	6	16
5	Ponferradina	6	3	2	1	5:3	2	11

Last Results with these Odds

Ponferradina - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.63%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.08.26	UD Ourense - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
19.08.26	Ponferradina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2 ✺
05.08.26	Ponferradina - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:2 ✺
01.08.26	Ponferradina - Real Avilés	1:1 ✺
29.07.26	Real Oviedo - Ponferradina	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WTLTL
- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
30.08.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Lugo	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
21.08.26	Lugo - Ourense CF	1:0 ✺
12.08.26	Bergantiños - Lugo	0:3 ✺
01.08.26	Lugo - Deportivo A Coruña B	2:0 ✺
29.07.26	Deportivo A Coruña - Lugo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
01.02.26	Lugo - Ponferradina	0:2
15.11.25	Ponferradina - Lugo	1:1
Club Friendly
13.08.25	Ponferradina - Lugo	3:2
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
23.03.25	Ponferradina - Lugo	0:1
14.12.24	Lugo - Ponferradina	0:1
17.03.24	Ponferradina - Lugo	0:0
17.09.23	Lugo - Ponferradina	0:0

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