Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 3

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal da Malata (Ferrol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, TVG 2


	Ferrol		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	2	3.1	3.5
	1.95	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.02	3.15	3.55
	2.02	3.33	3.51
	2.22	2.92	3.54	Watch
	2.05	3.14	3.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.39)	3.14 ↓ (3.22)	3.52 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferrol
44.8%

Draw
29.2%

Ponferradina
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

28.3%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

28.4%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferrol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ferrol's performance.

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ponferradina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferrol than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ferrol that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ponferradina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ferrol - Ponferradina Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Ponferradina (2.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ponferradina (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Parera P. M. (G) 2. Miguel 4. Artetxe M. 15. Zalaya A. 17. Ramon A. 8. Gorostidi A. 5. Noriega J. 7. Alvaro J. 23. Pena A. 11. Dacosta R. 9. Escobar A.	1. Prieto A. (G) 21. Moreno D. 3. Novoa G. 4. Moltenis B. 19. Lopez A. 5. Undabarrena E. 8. Aguilar Elizalde E. 17. Keita A. 14. Fernandez X. 10. Valle B. (C) 9. Cortes J.
Substitutes
21. Carballo D. 12. Chema 25. Diaz L. (G) 13. Fernandez C. G. (G) 24. Garcia A. 16. Garcia S. 6. Gelardo A. 20. Gimenez A. 22. Mardones A. 10. Pascu 3. Pujol E. 14. Tejera S.	2. Andujar D. 25. Barredo P. (G) 20. Ferrer P. 16. Frimpong E. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 26. Kysil V. 11. Mula A. 6. San Emeterio F. 7. Sergio Benito 15. Sousa V. 18. Vazquez B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Pena A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', 0 - 1, Lopez A. ⚽,
55', 🟨,
59', 1 - 1, Alvaro J. ⚽,
72', 🟨,
82', 2 - 1, Gimenez A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ferrol won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Ferrol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ferrol is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Ferrol won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ferrol won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Club Ferrol
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
31.08.25	Ferrol - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
23.08.25	Ferrol - Celta de Vigo B	0:3 ✺
16.08.25	Ferrol - Ponferradina	1:1 ✺
13.08.25	Bergantiños - Ferrol	0:1 penalties ✺
10.08.25	Sporting de Gijón - Ferrol	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLTWL
- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
06.09.25	Ponferradina - Pontevedra	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Real Avilés - Ponferradina	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
23.08.25	Ponferradina - Athletic Bilbao B	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Ferrol - Ponferradina	1:1 ✺
13.08.25	Ponferradina - Lugo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
16.08.25	Ferrol - Ponferradina	1:1
26.07.23	Ponferradina - Ferrol	0:2
24.07.22	Ponferradina - Ferrol	2:1
31.07.19	Ferrol - Ponferradina	1:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
14.01.18	Ferrol - Ponferradina	2:1
26.08.17	Ponferradina - Ferrol	0:0
08.04.17	Ferrol - Ponferradina	2:1

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