Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 38

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ponferradina		Athletic Bilbao B

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.5	8
	1.37	3.9	8
	1.34	4.45	8.6
	1.3	4.51	10.01
	1.35	4.48	9.71	Watch
	1.33	4	9
	1.31	4.4	9.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.48)	4.32 ↑ (3.96)	8.93 ↑ (6.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
68.6%

Draw
21.2%

Athletic Bilbao B
10.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.8%

23.5%

13.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.7%

22.5%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ponferradina's performance.

Athletic Bilbao B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao B than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Ponferradina - Athletic Bilbao B Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ponferradina will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ponferradina (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Prieto A. (C) 12. Koke 5. Undabarrena E. 3. Novoa G. 19. Lopez A. 6. San Emeterio F. 22. Esquerdo V. 18. Vazquez B. 7. Calderon C. 8. Slavy 17. Keita A.	27. Galindo I. (G) 15. Alday I. 5. Monreal I. 4. Dunabeitia A. 12. Barandalla M. 31. Conde A. 10. Sanchez I. (C) 20. Korkut E. 22. Perez A. 9. Sanz I. 26. Sola J.
Substitutes
2. Andujar D. 9. Cortes J. 14. Fernandez X. 20. Ferrer P. 16. Frimpong E. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 26. Kysil V. 21. Mfulu O. 4. Moltenis B. 24. Moran E. 10. Valle B.	11. Bujan E. 1. Gamen E. (G) 21. Garcia B. 6. Gibelalde M. 7. Hierro A. 17. Huestamendia P. 2. Irurita X. 8. Lete E. 19. Louis-Jean J. 33. Sanchez S. 13. Santos M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Slavy ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', 🟨,
73', 🟨,
85', 🟨,
86', 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 2.

Ponferradina is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Athletic Bilbao B has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Ponferradina is the clear favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponferradina won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:1. (average 1:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ath Bilbao B	6	3	2	1	12:8	4	11
5	Ponferradina	6	3	2	1	5:3	2	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.05.26	Arenteiro - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
09.05.26	Ponferradina - Real Avilés	3:1 ✺
02.05.26	Zamora - Ponferradina	3:0 ✺
25.04.26	Ponferradina - Tenerife	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Ponferradina - Barakaldo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWLTW
- Athletic Bilbao B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.05.26	Athletic Bilbao B - CD Guadalajara	2:1 ✺
09.05.26	Pontevedra - Athletic Bilbao B	4:0 ✺
03.05.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Ourense CF	2:2 ✺
26.04.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Athletic Bilbao B	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Ferrol	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.01.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Ponferradina	1:0
Club Friendly
23.08.25	Ponferradina - Athletic Bilbao B	0:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.05.25	Ponferradina - Athletic Bilbao B	2:0
11.10.24	Athletic Bilbao B - Ponferradina	0:0
Club Friendly
24.07.24	Athletic Bilbao B - Ponferradina	0:1
Spanish LaLiga2
27.02.16	Athletic Bilbao B - Ponferradina	4:2
26.09.15	Ponferradina - Athletic Bilbao B	1:0

Upcoming Matches