Match Info

Brasileiro Women - Round 11

Date: 18 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Ciro Machado do Espirito Santo Stadium (Brasília)


	Real Brasilia		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.3	1.8
	4.1	3.5	1.75
	4.45	3.47	1.78
	4.42	3.52	1.8	Watch
	4.22	3.5	1.74
	4.1	3.5	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.18 ↑ (2.42)	3.47 ↑ (3.35)	1.77 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Brasilia
21.9%

Draw
26.4%

América Mineiro
51.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

27%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

27.6%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Brasilia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Brasilia's form might have worsened.

América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting América Mineiro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Brasilia than the current prediction. (+16.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Brasilia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-17%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for América Mineiro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Real Brasilia - América Mineiro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Taina (G) 9. Baiao 30. Cabrera P. 17. Dani 6. De La Torre L. 3. Edna 12. Giovana 5. Luciana 8. Maiara 19. Primo C. 31. Vergara H.	22. Taluane (G) 5. Ana Flavia 14. Arias E. 15. Iara 6. Ilana 16. Lais 4. Mayara 30. Mimi (C) 55. Pimenta 11. Radija 10. Rafa Levis
Substitutes
21. Beatriz 22. Camila Menezes (G) 94. Dani Soares (G) 23. Gaby (G) 16. Isabela 7. Katyelle 99. Kim Campos 2. Lay 10. Manu 15. Natalia	3. Ana Clara 29. Daise 9. Gadu 23. Jaja 20. Keka (G) 28. Mariana Fausto 13. Portugal 8. Sassa 1. Taina (G) 2. Vitoria

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Vergara H. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lais ↓, Gadu ↑,
50', Edna 🟨,
52', 1 - 1, Arias E. ⚽,
53', 🟨,
65', Primo C. ↓, Kim Campos ↑,
66', Ilana ↓, Portugal ↑,
71', Mimi ↓, Ana Clara ↑,
74', Iara ↓, Sassa ↑,
85', Maiara ↓, Manu ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 13 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Brasileiro Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Recent form of Real Brasilia has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, América MG has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

América MG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, América MG is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Real Brasilia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Brasilia Women
Brasileiro Women
10.05.25	Flamengo - Real Brasilia	4:0 ✺
05.05.25	Real Brasilia - Cruzeiro	0:3 ✺
01.05.25	Internacional - Real Brasilia	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	3B da Amazônia - Real Brasilia	2:2 ✺
20.04.25	Real Brasilia - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLTT
- América Mineiro Women
Brasileiro Women
11.05.25	Red Bull Bragantino - América Mineiro	2:0 ✺
04.05.25	América Mineiro - Fluminense	3:1 ✺
30.04.25	São Paulo - América Mineiro	1:3 ✺
27.04.25	Sport Recife - América Mineiro	1:2 ✺
20.04.25	América Mineiro - Cruzeiro	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.7 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brasileiro Women
08.06.24	América Mineiro - Real Brasilia	2:0

Real Brasilia - América Mineiro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide