Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 4

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Nuevo Estadio de La Victoria (Jaén)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Real Jaén		Ibiza

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	2.7
	2.37	3.10	2.60
	2.32	3.1	2.85
	2.34	3.2	2.98
	2.63	3.15	2.68	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.95
	2.51	3.14	2.83
	2.28	3.1	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (1.82)	3.11 ↓ (3.27)	2.8 ↓ (4.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Jaén
38.1%

Draw
29.3%

Ibiza
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

27.8%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

30%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Jaén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Jaén's form might have worsened.

Ibiza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ibiza's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Jaén than the current prediction. (+15.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Jaén, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ibiza than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ibiza, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Real Jaén - Ibiza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Morillas J. (G) 11. Martos M. 6. Alvarez J. 24. Perez A. 17. Moyano J. (C) 3. Serrano D. 16. Chino 8. Caballero A. 10. Adri P. 21. Sanhaji M. 9. Siverio M.	1. Prieto A. (G) 2. Busto P. 4. Blasco J. 15. Curbelo E. 3. Garcia V. 18. Astals D. 17. Valls T. 16. Rodriguez G. (C) 21. Lazo J. 10. Yoldi A. 9. Justo M.
Substitutes
20. Cabello M. 13. Carrasco S. (G) 18. Castillo N. 7. Gallego F. 2. Gomez D. 19. Keita M. 22. Lozano O. 12. Pehlivanov C. 4. Pol J. 14. Polo C. 23. Rodriguez D. 15. Senhadji Y.	23. Almenara G. 7. Eslava J. 5. Fadel I. 27. Gorla A. 22. Modesto H. 11. Nsukula G. 20. Ortiz P. 24. Ruiz E. 13. Stamatakis D. (G) 19. Varela I. 31. Vlad R. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Caballero A. 🟨,
17', Moyano J. ↓, Cabello M. ↑,
22', Lazo J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
49', 0 - 1, Lazo J. ⚽, Garcia V. (A),
54', Curbelo E. 🟨,
57', Perez A. 🟨,
60', Caballero A. ↓, Castillo N. ↑,
60', Perez A. ↓, Keita M. ↑,
66', Lazo J. ↓, Varela I. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Serrano D. ⚽,
71', Curbelo E. ↓, Ruiz E. ↑,
71', Justo M. ↓, Eslava J. ↑,
73', Castillo N. 🟨,
82', Chino ↓, Pol J. ↑,
83', Cabello M. ↓, Polo C. ↑,
84', Garcia V. ↓, Modesto H. ↑,
84', Yoldi A. ↓, Almenara G. ↑,
84', Rodriguez G. 🟨,
85', Sanhaji M. 🟨,
90+6', 2 - 1, Castillo N. ⚽, Polo C. (A),

Preview

Both teams are currently displaying solid and consistent form.

Recently, Ibiza has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Jaén is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Jaen	6	3	2	1	8:5	3	11
9	UD Ibiza	6	3	0	3	8:8	0	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Jaén
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
12.09.26	Teruel - Real Jaén	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Real Jaén - Huesca	2:2 ✺
30.08.26	CE Europa - Real Jaén	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
06.08.26	Real Jaén - Córdoba	1:2 ✺
01.08.26	Linares Deportivo - Real Jaén	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WTWLW
- UD Ibiza
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
12.09.26	Ibiza - Sant Andreu	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Ibiza - Rayo Majadahonda	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Antequera - Ibiza	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.26	Ibiza - Peña Deportiva	5:0 ✺
05.08.26	Ibiza - Elche Ilicitano	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLWW

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