Match Info

UEFA Champions League Women - League phase - Round 1

Date: 22 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Referee: Projkovska I. (Mkd)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Real Madrid		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	1.60	4.10	4.00
	1.65	4.20	4.10
	1.62	4.00	4.50
	1.65	4.32	4.64
	1.61	4.4	4.67	Watch
	1.60	4.20	4.55
	1.64	4.29	4.40
	1.64	4.20	4.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.85)	4.21 ↑ (3.9)	4.4 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
56.9%

Draw
22%

Paris Saint-Germain
21.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

49.5%

23.5%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

22.2%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid's performance.

Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paris Saint-Germain might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Real Madrid - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - PSG (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid (votes: 1 - 50%). PSG (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Frohms M. (G) 19. Navarro E. 23. Lakrar M. 22. Andersson B. 3. Levels J. 24. Caruso A. 20. Senss E. 17. Jacinto A. 7. Keukelaar L. 12. Schroder F. 18. Caicedo L. (C)	1. Kiedrzynek K. (G) 12. Isabela 2. Samoura T. 4. Dudek P. 20. Elimbi T. 30. Osteras E. 10. Ajibade R. 6. Echegini J. 7. Karchaoui S. (C) 18. Feller N. 17. Leuchter R.
Substitutes
30. Agueda C. (G) 11. Beerensteyn L. 9. Bruun S. 29. Campos N. 8. Dabritz S. 26. De La Cuerda C. 10. del Castillo A. 14. Mendez M. 47. Rodriguez C. 35. Rubio P. 31. San Martin O.	34. Charlier A. 26. Ebayilin A. 23. Fatier N. 11. Jourde F. 19. Kanjinga M. 47. Lafontaine M. 28. Le Guilly J. 27. Le Roux G. 29. Mbock G. 57. Morissaint L. 16. Szperkowska O. (G) 8. Yaya
Coaches
Quesada P.	Paulo C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Schroder F. ⚽, Caruso A. (A),
8', Senss E. 🟨,
41', Karchaoui S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Elimbi T. ↓, Le Guilly J. ↑,
51', Samoura T. 🟨,
61', Osteras E. ↓, Ebayilin A. ↑,
62', Leuchter R. ↓, Morissaint L. ↑,
62', Dudek P. ↓, Mbock G. ↑,
62', Keukelaar L. ↓, del Castillo A. ↑,
74', 1 - 1, Karchaoui S. (Penalty Awarded),
83', Echegini J. ↓, Jourde F. ↑,
85', Caruso A. ↓, Beerensteyn L. ↑,
90+4', del Castillo A. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 7th in the Promotion ~ Champions League Women Playoffs1/8~finals) and 17th).

Both teams arrive in flying form having triumphed in their latest fixtures.

PSG could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Real Madrid has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.

Real Madrid carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Our forecast points to a victory for Real Madrid in today's match, at odds of 1.73.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Real Madrid has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:9 (averaging 0.6:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Real Madrid against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 0:2 goals (averaging 0:1 per game).

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	PSG W	2	1	1	0	6:1	5	4
12	Real Madrid W	2	0	2	0	2:2	0	2

Outrights of UEFA Champions League Women for now

Real Madrid W: 1.78% PSG W: 1.29%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Women
Spanish Liga F Women
19.09.26	Real Madrid - Valencia	3:1 ✺
11.09.26	Deportivo A Coruña - Real Madrid	0:2 ✺
06.09.26	Real Madrid - Eibar	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League Women
02.09.26	Real Madrid - Ajax	2:1 ✺
Spanish Liga F Women
30.08.26	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWTWW
- Paris Saint-Germain Féminines
French Division 1 Women
18.09.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Nantes	1:0 ✺
11.09.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Strasbourg	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Lens - Paris Saint-Germain	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League Women
02.09.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Eintracht Frankfurt	5:1 AET ✺
26.08.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Paris Saint-Germain	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League Women
16.10.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Real Madrid	1:2
16.12.22	Paris Saint-Germain - Real Madrid	2:1
26.10.22	Real Madrid - Paris Saint-Germain	0:0
18.11.21	Real Madrid - Paris Saint-Germain	0:2
09.11.21	Paris Saint-Germain - Real Madrid	4:0

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