Match Info

LaLiga - Round 1

Date: 26 August 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Busquets M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 3, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport LaLiga
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1
Austria	Laola1
Belarus	Belarus 5
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Caze TV
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	ESPN
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic
Finland	Disney+
France	DAZN France, Disney+
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Laola1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Italy	DAZN 1, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 1
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand
Spain	M+ LaLiga
Sweden	Disney+
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN


	Real Madrid		Real Sociedad

	1	X	2
	1.17	8.00	13.00	Watch
	1.21	7.50	11.50
	1.19	7.50	13.00	Watch
	1.20	8.25	15.00
	1.22	7.19	11.87	Watch
	1.19	7.95	13.00
	1.19	8.68	13.40	Watch
	1.20	8.20	13.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.2 ↓ (1.37)	7.91 ↑ (5.18)	12.97 ↑ (7.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
80.4%

Draw
12.2%

Real Sociedad
7.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.2%

18.3%

12.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid's performance.

Real Sociedad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Sociedad might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.1%	0%	8.9%

Real Madrid - Real Sociedad Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Real (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (2.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (41 of 45 users predict this - 91.11%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.79% – 99.43%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Courtois T. (G) 24. Dumfries D. 16. Konate I. 4. Huijsen D. 18. Carreras A. 20. Silva B. 8. Valverde F. (C) 15. Guler A. 5. Bellingham J. 7. Vinicius Junior 10. Mbappe K.	1. Remiro A. (G) 2. Aramburu J. 34. Beitia L. 31. Martin J. 17. Gomez S. 21. Herrera Y. 8. Turrientes B. 14. Kubo T. 24. Sucic L. 12. Ochieng J. 10. Oyarzabal M. (C)
Substitutes
12. Alexander-Arnold T. 6. Camavinga E. 29. Cestero Sancho J. 36. Ciria A. 17. Cucurella M. 21. Diaz B. 25. Diomande Y. 19. Espi C. 13. Lunin A. (G) 26. Mestre S. (G) 33. Rivas M. 22. Rudiger A.	26. Aguirre I. 7. Barrenetxea A. 11. Guedes G. 28. Lebarbier A. 29. Marchal A. 13. Marrero U. (G) 3. Munoz A. 9. Oskarsson O. 16. Pacheco J. 18. Soler C. 23. Zakharyan A. 5. Zubeldia I.
Coaches
Mourinho J.	Matarazzo P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', Carreras A. 🟨,
31', Herrera Y. 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Mbappe K. ⚽, Valverde F. (A),
44', 1 - 1, Sucic L. ⚽,
45+2', Aramburu J. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Carreras A. ↓, Cucurella M. ↑,
57', Oyarzabal M. ↓, Oskarsson O. ↑,
57', Aramburu J. ↓, Zubeldia I. ↑,
60', 2 - 1, Mbappe K. ⚽, Bellingham J. (A),
66', Ochieng J. ↓, Barrenetxea A. ↑,
66', Herrera Y. ↓, Soler C. ↑,
68', 3 - 1, Vinicius Junior ⚽, Bellingham J. (A),
71', Beitia L. 🟨,
73', Konate I. 🟨,
74', Kubo T. ↓, Guedes G. ↑,
78', Bellingham J. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
78', Guler A. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
80', 4 - 1, Mbappe K. ⚽, Vinicius Junior (A),
84', Vinicius Junior ↓, Diomande Y. ↑,
86', Silva B. ↓, Espi C. ↑,
90+4', Camavinga E. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 4.

Real is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Real Sociedad has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Real Sociedad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Real Sociedad has had a series of away games.

In this match, Real is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Real: Asencio R. (Muscle Injury) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Endrick (Muscle Injury) Mendy F. (Hip Injury) Pitarch T. (Knee Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury) Tchouameni A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Real Sociedad: Gorrotxategi J. (Groin Injury) Marin P. (Injury) Odriozola A. (Knee Injury)

We predict that Real will win today's game, with odds of 1.32.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 39:24. (average 2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Real won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:17. (average 2.5:1.5).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Real Madrid: 20.23% Real Sociedad: 0.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18:8	10	15
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9:13	-4	10

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid - the odds 1.37 are the expected chance of winning is 69.22%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
22.08.26	Espanyol - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.26	Schalke 04 - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
12.08.26	Deportivo A Coruña - Real Madrid	0:1 ✺
01.08.26	Real Madrid - Fiorentina	2:2 ✺
28.07.26	Real Madrid - Leganés	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWWTW
- Real Sociedad
Spanish LaLiga
21.08.26	Betis - Real Sociedad	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Chelsea - Real Sociedad	3:1 ✺
31.07.26	Toulouse - Real Sociedad	2:1 ✺
28.07.26	Aston Villa - Real Sociedad	2:4 ✺
25.07.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Real Sociedad	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
14.02.26	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	4:1
13.09.25	Real Sociedad - Real Madrid	1:2
24.05.25	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	2:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
01.04.25	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	4:4 ET
26.02.25	Real Sociedad - Real Madrid	0:1
Spanish LaLiga
14.09.24	Real Sociedad - Real Madrid	0:2
26.04.24	Real Sociedad - Real Madrid	0:1

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