Match Info

Copa del Rey - Semi-finals

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)

Referee: Sanchez J. (Esp)

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	Athletic Bilbao		Real Sociedad

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.1	2.85	Watch
	2.58	3.05	2.98
	2.65	3.15	3
	2.49	2.98	3.06	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.88
	2.62	3.12	3.04	Watch
	2.6	2.9	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.45)	3.03 ↓ (3.25)	2.97 ↓ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
36.9%

Draw
31.2%

Real Sociedad
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

29.4%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

30.3%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Real Sociedad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
48%	28%	24%

Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 12 - 48%). Real Sociedad will win (votes: 6 - 24%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 28%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 28.4% – 67.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Real Sociedad (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Real Sociedad (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.84) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Real Sociedad (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Padilla A. (G) 15. Lekue I. 47. Monreal I. 14. Laporte A. 19. Boiro A. 18. Jauregizar M. 30. Rego A. 9. Williams I. (C) 20. Gomez U. 23. Navarro R. 11. Guruzeta G.	1. Remiro A. (G) 2. Aramburu J. 31. Martin J. 16. Caleta-Car D. 17. Gomez S. 4. Gorrotxategi J. 8. Turrientes B. 15. Marin P. 18. Soler C. 11. Guedes G. 10. Oyarzabal M. (C)
Substitutes
12. Areso J. 28. Dunabeitia A. 49. Garcia E. 2. Gorosabel A. 25. Izeta 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 44. Sanchez S. 22. Serrano N. 1. Simon U. (G) 6. Vesga M. 10. Williams N.	26. Diaz D. 6. Elustondo A. 32. Fraga A. (G) 12. Herrera Y. 23. Mendez B. 3. Munoz A. 47. Ochieng J. 20. Odriozola A. 9. Oskarsson O. 22. Wesley 5. Zubeldia I.
Coaches
Valverde E.	Matarazzo P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Rego A. ↓, Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↑,
56', Navarro R. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
56', Gomez U. ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
56', Williams I. ↓, Williams N. ↑,
58', Guedes G. 🟨,
62', 0 - 1, Turrientes B. ⚽, Guedes G. (A),
65', Odriozola A. 🟨,
66', Ruiz de Galarreta I. 🟨,
74', Aramburu J. ↓, Elustondo A. ↑,
74', Turrientes B. ↓, Oskarsson O. ↑,
82', Jauregizar M. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
85', Marin P. ↓, Odriozola A. ↑,
85', Soler C. ↓, Herrera Y. ↑,
90+5', Guedes G. ↓, Ochieng J. ↑,
90+6', Oyarzabal M. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 2.

Athletic has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Real Sociedad is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Real Sociedad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Athletic might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Berchiche Y. (Injury) Berenguer A. (Injury) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Paredes A. (Red Card) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sancet O. (Injury) Sannadi M. (Knee Injury) Vivian D. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Real Sociedad: Barrenetxea A. (Muscle Injury) Dadie Izagirre A. (Injury) Karrikaburu J. (Coach's decision) Kubo T. (Hamstring Injury) Lebarbier A. (Injury) Marrero U. (Face Injury) Ruperez I. (Knee Injury) Sucic L. (Injury) Zakharyan A. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:25. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 1.4:0.7).

Outrights of Spanish Copa del Rey for now

Real Sociedad: 5.22% Ath Bilbao: 3.23%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
08.02.26	Athletic Bilbao - Levante	4:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.02.26	Valencia - Athletic Bilbao	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
01.02.26	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Athletic Bilbao - Sporting Lisbon	2:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
24.01.26	Sevilla - Athletic Bilbao	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWTLL
- Real Sociedad
Spanish LaLiga
07.02.26	Real Sociedad - Elche	3:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.02.26	Deportivo Alavés - Real Sociedad	2:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
01.02.26	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Real Sociedad - Celta de Vigo	3:1 ✺
18.01.26	Real Sociedad - Barcelona	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
01.02.26	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	1:1
01.11.25	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	3:2
04.05.25	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	0:0
24.11.24	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	1:0
13.01.24	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	2:1
30.09.23	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	3:0
15.04.23	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	2:0

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