Match Info

Copa del Rey - 1/32-finals

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Enrique Roca (Murcia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Real Murcia		Cádiz

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.05	2.5	Watch
	2.72	3.15	2.58
	2.72	3.14	2.56
	2.88	2.92	2.60	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.6	Watch
	2.91	3.13	2.67
	2.66	3	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↓ (3.28)	3.04 ↓ (3.1)	2.58 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Murcia
33.4%

Draw
30.5%

Cádiz
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

29.8%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

29.8%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Murcia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Murcia's performance.

Cádiz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cádiz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Murcia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cádiz than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cádiz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Real Murcia - Cádiz Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Murcia will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Cádiz will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Murcia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 18. Vicente D. 4. Lopez A. 6. Gonzalez A. 3. Romero C. 16. Antonio David 8. Schalk A. 10. Gomez I. 20. Zenitagoia E. 9. Benito P. A. P. 14. Leon P.	1. Gil D. (G) 29. Caicedo A. 27. Fernandez P. 2. Moreno J. 33. Pereira R. 12. Tabatadze I. 24. Gonzalez J. 18. Diarra Y. 8. Fernandez A. 23. Pascual A. 7. Ugiagbe E.
Substitutes
32. Adebayo K. 23. Bosilj D. 31. Djanbou S. 30. Joao Pedro Palmberg 22. Juan Carlos 35. Kajaia S. (G) 38. Lara M. 2. Mier J. 26. Perez H. 34. Sanchez J. G. 29. Sarabia A.	36. Alvarez I. 13. Aznar V. (G) 17. Camara D. 21. Climent M. 5. Diakite M. 34. Diaz Peregrina J. 9. Marti R. 10. Ocampo B. 6. Ortega I. 15. Ortuno S. 99. Ukwuije N.
Coaches
Colunga A.	Garitano G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Schalk A. ⚽, Leon P. (A),
21', 2 - 0, Benito P. A. P. ⚽, Schalk A. (A),
45+3', 3 - 0, Vicente D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Gonzalez A. ↓, Perez H. ↑,
46', Schalk A. ↓, Joao Pedro Palmberg ↑,
46', Pascual A. ↓, Camara D. ↑,
46', Gonzalez J. ↓, Diakite M. ↑,
46', Tabatadze I. ↓, Alvarez I. ↑,
46', Ugiagbe E. ↓, Marti R. ↑,
47', Lopez A. 🟨,
48', Fernandez A. (Penalty Awarded),
53', 3 - 1, Diarra Y. ⚽, Alvarez I. (A),
56', Leon P. ↓, Djanbou S. ↑,
66', Zenitagoia E. ↓, Bosilj D. ↑,
66', 🟨,
77', 3 - 2, Camara D. ⚽,
78', Fernandez A. ↓, Ortuno S. ↑,
84', Diakite M. 🟨,
86', Lopez A. ↓, Sanchez J. G. ↑,
90', Alvarez I. 🟨,
90+6', Romero C. 🟨,
90+6', Diakite M. 🟨,
90+7', Caicedo A. 🟨,
90+8', Joao Pedro Palmberg 🟨,

Preview

Murcia is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Cádiz has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Murcia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Murcia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Real Murcia - the odds 3.28 are the expected chance of winning is 28.18%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
30.11.25	Real Murcia - Alcorcón	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Antequera - Real Murcia	0:2 ✺
16.11.25	Real Murcia - Teruel	0:0 ✺
08.11.25	Real Murcia - Gimnástic de Tarragona	3:2 ✺
02.11.25	Betis B - Real Murcia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWTWW
- Cádiz CF
Spanish LaLiga2
30.11.25	Córdoba - Cádiz	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Cádiz - Leonesa	1:2 ✺
16.11.25	Almería - Cádiz	3:0 ✺
09.11.25	Cádiz - Valladolid	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	FC Andorra - Cádiz	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
28.02.16	Real Murcia - Cádiz	1:2
10.10.15	Cádiz - Real Murcia	0:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
02.09.15	Real Murcia - Cádiz	0:1

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