Match Info

Primera B - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Villa Concha (Piedecuesta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Real Santander		Unión Magdalena

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.85	3.10	2.20
	2.9	3.2	2.25
	2.83	3.27	2.64
	2.83	3.37	2.39	Watch
	2.75	2.95	2.6
	2.85	3.56	2.39	Watch
	2.7	3.15	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↓ (3.33)	3.23 (3.23)	2.4 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Santander
32.8%

Draw
28.6%

Unión Magdalena
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

28.7%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

28.5%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Santander has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Unión Magdalena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Santander than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Real Santander - Unión Magdalena Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Real Santander will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Unión Magdalena will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lazaro J. (G) 6. Ariza A. (C) 29. Carrasco J. 11. Diaz M. 14. Garcia Habib J. P. 27. Guillen Sanchez J. D. 5. Holguin J. 24. Rangel L. 9. Rodriguez P. 26. Roman B. 31. Tapia D.	34. Tasso M. (G) 2. Ballesteros M. 7. Blanco R. 27. Lerma J. 10. Mercado J. (C) 6. Ortiz D. 5. Penaloza J. 15. Rodriguez R. 25. Sagrera W. 28. Salazar K. 16. Surmay O.
Substitutes
15. Ararat J. 37. Delgado J. 3. Duran C. 8. Garcia J. 23. Moreno B. 30. Perez J. 22. Ramos Y. (G) 7. Rueda Juan 25. Segura A.	1. Cabezas V. (G) 14. Farias J. 22. Giraldo J. 9. Iguaran C. 18. Molina F. 19. Mosquera F. 29. Pimienta J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
23', 0 - 1, Blanco R. ⚽,
26', Ariza A. 🟨,
35', 0 - 2, Rodriguez R. ⚽,
37', 1 - 2, Ariza A. ⚽,
41', Surmay O. 🟨,
45+2', Sagrera W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lerma J. ↓, Molina F. ↑,
46', Salazar K. ↓, Mosquera F. ↑,
48', Molina F. 🟨,
59', 1 - 3, Ballesteros M. ⚽,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 10th and 15th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Santander won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Unión Magdalena is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Real Santander has recorded 3 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:37 (averaging 1:2.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Real Santander against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with 12:16 goals (averaging 1.2:1.6 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	U. Magdalena	11	3	3	5	10:12	-2	12
13	Real Santander	11	2	6	3	13:18	-5	12

Last Results with these Odds

Unión Magdalena - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 43.37%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Santander
Colombian Primera B
26.09.26	Tigres - Real Santander	1:1 ✺
22.09.26	Real Santander - Orsomarso	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Boca Juniors de Cali - Real Santander	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Deportes Quindío - Real Santander	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Real Santander - Internacional de Palmira	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 TTLTW
- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera B
29.09.26	Unión Magdalena - Real Cartagena	1:1 ✺
Colombian Copa
25.09.26	Unión Magdalena - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
Colombian Primera B
18.09.26	Patriotas - Unión Magdalena	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Real Cundinamarca - Unión Magdalena	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Unión Magdalena - Barranquilla	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
26.03.26	Unión Magdalena - Real Santander	2:0
Colombian Copa
29.05.25	Real Santander - Unión Magdalena	0:2
Colombian Primera B
01.09.24	Unión Magdalena - Real Santander	4:0
16.03.24	Real Santander - Unión Magdalena	2:0
Colombian Copa
06.04.22	Real Santander - Unión Magdalena	1:5
30.03.22	Unión Magdalena - Real Santander	3:1
Colombian Primera B
31.07.21	Real Santander - Unión Magdalena	3:3

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