Match Info
Serie D - Group I - Round 18Date: 4 January 2026, SundayLocation: Stadio Oreste Granillo (Reggio Calabria)
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Reggina |
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Castrumfavara |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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1.3 |
4.5 |
8.5 |
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1.27 |
4.75 |
8.6 |
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1.34 |
4.54 |
7.78 |
 Watch |
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1.3 |
4.33 |
9 |
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1.27 |
4.65 |
10.1 |
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1.22 |
5 |
12 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.28 ↓
(2.27) |
4.63 ↑
(3.48) |
9.33 ↑
(2.71) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
- The best margin for this event is 9.5%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Reggina
70.7% | Draw
19.6% | Castrumfavara
9.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Reggina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+30.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Reggina's performance.Castrumfavara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-23.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Castrumfavara might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Reggina than the current prediction. (-28.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Reggina that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castrumfavara than the current prediction. (+22.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Castrumfavara could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Reggina - Castrumfavara Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 10', 1 - 0, Ragusa A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 26', 2 - 0, Ferraro L. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
Preview
This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 and 13 in the zone Serie D ~ Group I (Play Out: )).Reggina is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).Castrumfavara has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins โ 1).Castrumfavara may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, Reggina is the undisputed favorite.In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Reggina won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 2.3:1.3).Including home match between the teams, Reggina won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Reggina | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15:1 | 14 | 15 |
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| 14 | Castrumfavara | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:7 | -2 | 4 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Italian Serie D - Group I | | | 07.09.25 | Castrumfavara - Reggina | 2:1 | | 27.04.25 | Reggina - Castrumfavara | 3:1 | | 15.01.25 | Castrumfavara - Reggina | 1:3 |
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