Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 1

Date: 13 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Arena Pernambuco (São Lourenço da Mata)


	Retrô Brasil		Tombense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.9	3.1	3.7
	1.95	3.15	3.75	Watch
	2.01	3.2	3.92
	1.91	3	3.8
	1.92	3.13	3.88	Watch
	1.95	3.15	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.34)	3.12 ↓ (3.13)	3.8 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Retrô Brasil
46.9%

Draw
29.1%

Tombense
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

29%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

28.6%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Retrô Brasil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Retrô Brasil's performance.

Tombense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tombense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Retrô Brasil than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Retrô Brasil that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tombense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Retrô Brasil - Tombense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Fabian Volpi (G) 3. Claudinho 25. Eduardo 7. Fabinho 10. Fernandinho 6. Gustavo Salomao 27. Jonas 11. Junior Fialho 8. Radsley 4. Rayan Ribeiro 22. Samuel Granada	1. Matheus Aurelio (G) 11. Anderson Ligeiro 5. Andre Cardoso 3. Ianson 10. Ingro 7. Joao Pedro 8. Joao Vitor 2. Julio Henrique 9. Rafael Silva 4. Roger Carvalho (C) 6. Tarcisio
Substitutes
16. de Souza Rodrigues M. V. 18. Franco R. 2. Gedeilson 20. Gledson 28. Lucas Grafite 13. Luiz Henrique 30. Maycon Douglas 29. Mendonca 26. Natan 21. Paulo Gianezini (G) 19. Rayne Assis 5. Romulo	18. Adson 15. Breno Roma 22. Douglas Coutinho 17. Fabricio 14. Fernando 21. Jefferson Renan 13. Leo Pereira 16. Lucas Mila 20. Pedro Oliveira 12. Vinicius Dias (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Eduardo 🟨,
41', Samuel Granada ↓, de Souza Rodrigues M. V. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gustavo Salomao ↓, Luiz Henrique ↑,
46', Eduardo ↓, Rayne Assis ↑,
54', 🟨,
58', Julio Henrique ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
58', Joao Vitor ↓, Fabricio ↑,
62', Leo Pereira 🟨,
64', Rayan Ribeiro ↓, Gedeilson ↑,
69', Anderson Ligeiro ↓, Douglas Coutinho ↑,
70', Rafael Silva ↓, Jefferson Renan ↑,
70', Fabinho ↓, Franco R. ↑,
74', Andre Cardoso ↓, Lucas Mila ↑,
80', Ingro 🟨,

Preview

Retrô is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Tombense is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Retrô could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Tombense have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Retrô won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Retrô Brasil
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
02.04.25	Sport Recife - Retrô Brasil	2:2 penalties ✺
22.03.25	Retrô Brasil - Sport Recife	2:3 ✺
16.03.25	Maguary - Retrô Brasil	1:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.25	Atlético Goianiense - Retrô Brasil	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
09.03.25	Retrô Brasil - Maguary	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.1 WLWWW
- Tombense FC
Copa do Brasil
12.03.25	Operário Ferroviario - Tombense	1:0 ✺
26.02.25	Clube Sociedade Esportiva - Tombense	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
22.02.25	Tombense - Atlético Mineiro	0:2 ✺
15.02.25	Atlético Mineiro - Tombense	2:0 ✺
12.02.25	Villa Nova AC - Tombense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
08.03.23	Tombense - Retrô Brasil	1:0

Retrô Brasil - Tombense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide