Match Info

Pernambucano - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 12 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Arena Pernambuco (São Lourenço da Mata)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Retrô Brasil		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	3.75	3	2.02
	4.01	3.08	2
	3.76	3.22	1.94
	3.4	2.9	2
	3.89	2.97	1.97
	4	3.1	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↑ (3.5)	3.05 ↑ (3)	2 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Retrô Brasil
24.1%

Draw
30.1%

Sport Recife
45.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.9%

31.3%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.2%

30.5%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Retrô Brasil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Retrô Brasil than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-3%)

Retrô Brasil - Sport Recife Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Recife (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Recife (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Recife (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Paulo Ricardo (G) 3. Dankler (C) 2. David Junio 17. Diego Guerra 11. Douglas 5. Kadi Silva 6. Luiz Henrique 7. Luiz Henrique 8. Radsley 4. Rayan Ribeiro 9. Vagner Love	1. Halls (G) 68. Augusto 5. Benevenuto 30. Chrystian Barletta 29. Davi Gabriel 9. Gustavo Coutinho 11. Gustavo Maia 48. Pedro Martins 40. Ramon Menezes (C) 7. Yago Felipe 23. Ze Gabriel
Substitutes
22. Bruno Marques 30. Cacau 25. Ericson 26. Gogo J. 21. Guilherme 27. Iury 12. Jefferson Paulino (G) 14. Junior Fialho 19. Lira W. 29. Murilo Cosmo 28. Oliveira G. 15. Wesley Junio	25. Clayson 65. Dede 10. de Pena C. 3. Marcelo Ajul 31. Marlon Douglas 2. Matheus Alexandre 8. Max Alves 77. Micael 66. Rafinha 26. Thiago Couto (G) 58. Ze Lucas 99. Ze Roberto
Coaches
Andrade de Brito J.	Roger Silva

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Pedro Martins 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Douglas ↓, Ericson ↑,
53', 0 - 1, Gustavo Maia ⚽,
59', 🟨,
59', Rayan Ribeiro 🟨,
61', Gustavo Coutinho ↓, Ze Roberto ↑,
62', Pedro Martins ↓, de Pena C. ↑,
62', Kadi Silva ↓, Murilo Cosmo ↑,
62', Diego Guerra ↓, Junior Fialho ↑,
68', Junior Fialho 🟨,
73', 🟨,
73', Vagner Love ↓, Lira W. ↑,
74', Gustavo Maia ↓, Clayson ↑,
74', Chrystian Barletta ↓, Max Alves ↑,
77', Yago Felipe 🟨,
88', Ramon Menezes 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Retrô won 2.

Retrô has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Recife is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recife will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Retrô won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:18. (average 1.2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Retrô won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1.3:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Retrô Brasil
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
07.02.26	Retrô Brasil - Maguary	2:1 ✺
04.02.26	Maguary - Retrô Brasil	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Retrô Brasil - Decisão	0:1 ✺
28.01.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Retrô Brasil	0:1 ✺
25.01.26	Retrô Brasil - Jaguar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WTLWT
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
31.01.26	Sport Recife - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1 ✺
28.01.26	Maguary - Sport Recife	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Sport Recife - Vitória das Tabocas	3:0 ✺
21.01.26	Sport Recife - Decisão	5:0 ✺
18.01.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Sport Recife	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
14.01.26	Sport Recife - Retrô Brasil	2:0
02.04.25	Sport Recife - Retrô Brasil	2:2 penalties
22.03.25	Retrô Brasil - Sport Recife	2:3
18.01.25	Sport Recife - Retrô Brasil	1:1
17.01.24	Sport Recife - Retrô Brasil	2:4
22.04.23	Sport Recife - Retrô Brasil	2:0
15.04.23	Retrô Brasil - Sport Recife	1:2

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