Match Info

Nakotnes liga - Round 8

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Futbols TV


	Riga 2		Mārupe

	1	X	2
	3.05	3.65	1.95	Watch
	3.16	3.7	1.94
	3.25	3.55	1.99	Watch
	3.2	3.3	1.95
	3.26	3.58	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↑ (3.14)	3.56 ↓ (3.7)	1.95 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Riga 2
28.4%

Draw
25.4%

Mārupe
46.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

24.8%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

24%

47.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Riga 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Mārupe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Riga 2 than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mārupe than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Riga 2 - Mārupe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 4)
61', 0 - 1, Minasyan A. ⚽, Korsaks K. (A),
68', Sylla A. 🟥,
78', 0 - 2, Korsaks K. ⚽,
84', 0 - 3, Korsaks K. ⚽, Penka R. (A),
90', 0 - 4, Jansons K. ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 6).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Riga 2 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Mārupe has had a series of away games.

Mārupe might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Riga 2 won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Riga 2 won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Marupe	21	9	2	10	34:32	2	29
8	Riga FC 2	21	7	5	9	29:37	-8	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Riga FC 2
Latvian 1 Liga
10.05.26	Leevon PPK - Riga 2	3:2 ✺
04.05.26	Skanstes - Riga 2	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Riga 2 - JFK Ventspils	4:2 ✺
19.04.26	Riga Mariners - Riga 2	0:0 ✺
10.04.26	Riga 2 - JDFS Alberts	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.5 LLWTW
- Mārupes SC
Latvian 1 Liga
09.05.26	Tukums 2000 2 - Mārupe	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Super Nova 2 - Mārupe	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	JDFS Alberts - Mārupe	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Mārupe - Valmiera	2:3 ✺
12.04.26	Leevon PPK - Mārupe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
20.09.25	Riga 2 - Mārupe	1:0
11.05.25	Mārupe - Riga 2	2:0
10.11.24	Riga 2 - Mārupe	2:1
27.07.24	Mārupe - Riga 2	0:0

Riga 2 - Mārupe: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide