Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 8 August 2024, Thursday

Location: Stadion HNK Rijeka (Rijeka)

Referee: Sidiropoulos A. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV
Croatia	MAX Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Sweden	Sport Bladet Play


	Rijeka		Elfsborg

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.25	Watch
	2.1	3.5	3.3
	2.15	3.4	3.3	Watch
	2.13	3.49	3.47
	2.05	3.63	3.32	Watch
	2	3.5	3.1
	2.1	3.6	3.36	Watch
	2.15	3.4	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.81)	3.49 ↓ (3.83)	3.3 ↓ (3.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rijeka
44.6%

Draw
26.9%

Elfsborg
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

24.5%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

25.2%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rijeka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rijeka's form might have worsened.

Elfsborg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rijeka than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rijeka, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elfsborg than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Elfsborg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.3%	10.6%	17%

Rijeka - Elfsborg Predictions

Users Predictions: 44 users predict this event. Rijeka will win (votes: 34 - 77.3%). Elfsborg will win (votes: 6 - 13.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rijeka: 64.9% – 89.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Zlomislic M. (G) 28. Smolcic I. (C) 5. Galesic N. 6. Radeljic S. 32. Cabraja M. 8. Petrovic D. 25. Hodza V. 10. Fruk T. 4. Jankovic N. 87. Pasalic M. 11. Ivanovic F.	31. Pettersson I. (G) 8. Holmen S. (C) 4. Henriksson G. 2. Yegbe T. 15. Hedlund S. 27. Zeneli B. 6. Baldursson A. F. 23. Hult N. 14. Abdullai J. 10. Baidoo M. 9. Zeneli A.
Substitutes
29. Babic A. 12. Banda E. 30. Bogojevic B. 24. Burcul B. 27. Butic S. 34. Devetak M. 7. Djouahra N. 21. Ilinkovic S. 45. Majstorovic A. 1. Posavec J. (G) 41. Rukavina G. 18. Selahi L.	29. Buhari I. 30. Bundgaard M. (G) 17. Frick P. 11. Gudmundsson E. A. 24. Jebara C. 19. Kaib R. 13. Larsson J. 12. Ostman L. 18. Qasem A. 26. Richtner L. 7. Thomasen J. 1. Uppenberg M. (G)
Coaches
Sopic Z.	Hiljemark O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Abdullai J. 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Abdullai J. ⚽, Zeneli A. (A),
31', Baldursson A. F. 🟨,
36', Holmen S. 🟨,
40', Pasalic M. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 1, Galesic N. ⚽, Jankovic N. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Zeneli B. ↓, Frick P. ↑,
50', Yegbe T. 🟨,
56', Abdullai J. 🟨,
59', Baldursson A. F. ↓, Thomasen J. ↑,
62', Cabraja M. ↓, Bogojevic B. ↑,
62', Hodza V. ↓, Rukavina G. ↑,
73', Petrovic D. ↓, Selahi L. ↑,
73', Pasalic M. ↓, Butic S. ↑,
78', Baidoo M. ↓, Qasem A. ↑,
80', Rukavina G. 🟨,
81', Fruk T. ↓, Majstorovic A. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Rijeka is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Elfsborg is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Rijeka could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Rijeka will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HNK Rijeka
Croatian HNL
04.08.24	Rijeka - Lokomotiva Zagreb	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
01.08.24	Rijeka - Corvinul Hunedoara	1:0 ✺
25.07.24	Corvinul Hunedoara - Rijeka	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.24	Rijeka - Triglav	1:1 ✺
17.07.24	Red Bull Salzburg - Rijeka	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WWTTL
- IF Elfsborg
UEFA Europa League
01.08.24	Elfsborg - Sheriff Tiraspol	2:0 ✺
Swedish Allsvenskan
28.07.24	Elfsborg - Djurgården	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
25.07.24	Sheriff Tiraspol - Elfsborg	0:1 ✺
Swedish Allsvenskan
21.07.24	Elfsborg - Mjällby	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
18.07.24	Paphos - Elfsborg	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WLWWW

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