Match Info

Friendly International

Date: 5 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished


	Rwanda		Kenya

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.60	3.25
	2.05	3.10	3.80
	2.06	3.20	3.60
	2.09	3.24	4.20
	1.98	3.3	3.57
	2.01	3.05	4.15
	2.03	3.38	3.79	Watch
	1.97	3.10	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.85)	3.25 ↓ (3.65)	3.73 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rwanda
46.3%

Draw
28.7%

Kenya
25%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32%

25%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rwanda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rwanda's performance.

Kenya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kenya might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Rwanda - Kenya Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Rwanda will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Kenya will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Rwanda (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rwanda (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Hakizimana A. (G) Rayon Sport 7. Biramahire A. 8. Gueulette S. FC UTA Arad 3. Imanishimwe E. Chennaiyin FC 22. Kwizera J. Rhode Island 11. Muhire K. Rayon Sport 16. Niyigena C. Smouha 26. Nkulikiyimana D. St. Liege 17. Nshuti I. (C) Wefaq Ajdabiya 6. Obed U. Muhazi United 14. Tatou E. I. Rayon Sport	1. Faruk S. (G) St. Georges 12. Erambo C. Tusker 17. Harper V. Exeter 4. Kibwage M. Mahia 6. Nabwire M. Police FC 15. Ogam R. RFC Liege 20. Okwaro M. Reims 3. Omar A. (C) Police FC 14. Wanjala A. Torrellano 2. Wesonga H. KCB 21. Wilson O. S. AIK
Substitutes
4. Bizimana D. Constantine . Byiringiro L. Police . Hamiss . Kayibanda C. Luton 20. Mickels J. Sabah Baku 13. Mickels L. Mannheim 15. Mugisha B. Al Hazem Rass 12. Mugisha G. APR 5. Mutsinzi A. Zira FK . Niyongira P. (G) Espoir . Taiba	7. Bajaber M. Simba 18. Bwire B. (G) Polokwane City 11. Musa S. Mahia 19. Ochieng J. Real Sociedad 5. Odhiambo F. Mahia 23. Omondi B. (G) Mahia 24. Omondi B. S. Mahia 16. Onyango R. Sogndal

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gueulette S. ↓, Bizimana D. ↑,
46', Obed U. ↓, Byiringiro L. ↑,
46', Muhire K. ↓, Hamiss ↑,
46', Biramahire A. ↓, Mickels J. ↑,
60', Erambo C. ↓, Omondi B. S. ↑,
61', Nshuti I. ↓, Taiba ↑,
62', Hakizimana A. ↓, Niyongira P. ↑,
62', Kwizera J. ↓, Mickels L. ↑,
62', Tatou E. I. ↓, Kayibanda C. ↑,
67', Omar A. ↓, Onyango R. ↑,
78', Wanjala A. 🟨,
80', Wilson O. S. ↓, Bajaber M. ↑,
81', Wesonga H. ↓, Odhiambo F. ↑,
83', Mickels L. 🟨,
83', Bizimana D. 🟨,
85', Kibwage M. 🟨,
88', Nabwire M. 🟨,
90+4', Ogam R. 🟨,

Preview

Rwanda is ranked FIFA: 128., and Kenya is ranked FIFA: 109..

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Rwanda has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:5 (averaging 0.8:1.3 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rwanda
Africa Cup of Nations
29.09.26	Cape Verde - Rwanda	1:2 ✺
25.09.26	Rwanda - Liberia	3:1 ✺
Friendly
06.06.26	Rwanda - Comoros	Canceled ✺
FIFA Series
30.03.26	Rwanda - Estonia	2:0 ✺
FIFA World Cup
14.10.25	South Africa - Rwanda	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.7 WW?WL
- Kenya
Africa Cup of Nations
01.10.26	Guinea - Kenya	1:0 ✺
26.09.26	Kenya - Eritrea	1:1 ✺
Friendly
07.06.26	Kenya - Lesotho	4:0 ✺
04.06.26	Lesotho - Kenya	1:1 ✺
03.06.26	Kyrgyzstan - Kenya	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTWT?

Latest Head to Head

FIFA World Cup
15.11.21	Kenya - Rwanda	2:1
05.09.21	Rwanda - Kenya	1:1
CECAFA Championship
03.12.17	Kenya - Rwanda	2:0
01.12.15	Rwanda - Kenya	1:0 penalties

Rwanda - Kenya