Match Info

Amapaense - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 23 March 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio Augusto Antunes (Santana) 🌤️ ...


	São José		Independente

	1	X	2
	2.98	3.05	2.2
	2.7	3.15	2.47
	3	3.3	2.1
	3.23	3.13	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↑ (2.35)	3.16 ↓ (3.4)	2.22 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São José
30.5%

Draw
28.7%

Independente
40.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.3%

26.5%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

26.5%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São José has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that São José's form might have worsened.

Independente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Independente's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São José than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São José, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independente than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Independente, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

São José - Independente Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
82', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+2', 1 - 2, ⚽,
90+5', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

First leg result: 2-2. Second leg.

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Amapaense (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Amapaense (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

São José is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Independente has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Independente may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, São José won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São José Macapá
Brazilian Campeonato Amapaense
20.03.26	Independente - São José	2:2 ✺
11.03.26	São José - Oratório	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Ypiranga Clube - São José	0:1 ✺
27.02.26	São José - Cristal AP	2:1 ✺
20.02.26	São José - Trem	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 TLWWW
- Independente AP
Brazilian Campeonato Amapaense
20.03.26	Independente - São José	2:2 ✺
13.03.26	Independente - Ypiranga Clube	1:1 ✺
09.03.26	Macapá - Independente	1:3 ✺
05.03.26	Independente - Santos AP	2:2 ✺
26.02.26	Trem - Independente	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Amapaense
20.03.26	Independente - São José	2:2

São José - Independente