Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 13

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio João Paulo II (Angra do Heroísmo)


	SC Lusitânia		Peniche

	1	X	2
	2.48	3	2.68
	2.58	2.91	2.77	Watch
	2.5	2.8	2.7
	2.47	2.96	2.7
	2.57	2.83	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.32)	2.9 ↓ (3.2)	2.71 ↓ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SC Lusitânia
35.7%

Draw
31.1%

Peniche
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

28.3%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

29%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SC Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Peniche has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SC Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peniche than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

SC Lusitânia - Peniche Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. SC Lusitânia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - SC Lusitânia (2.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. SC Lusitânia (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 1 - 0, ⚽,
78', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation and 7).

SC Lusitânia is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Peniche has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

SC Lusitânia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, SC Lusitânia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, SC Lusitânia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Lusitânia
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
14.12.25	Oliveira Hospital - SC Lusitânia	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	SC Lusitânia - Marinhense	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	SC Lusitânia - Lajense	1:2 ✺
16.11.25	SC Lusitânia - Fatima	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	União da Serra - SC Lusitânia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTLWL
- GD Peniche
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
14.12.25	Peniche - União da Serra	3:2 ✺
07.12.25	SB Castelo Branco - Peniche	5:0 ✺
29.11.25	Peniche - Eléctrico	0:3 ✺
16.11.25	Oliveira Hospital - Peniche	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Vitória de Sernache - Peniche	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
03.03.24	Peniche - SC Lusitânia	1:4
19.11.23	SC Lusitânia - Peniche	1:0

SC Lusitânia - Peniche: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide