Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 5

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta (Sabadell)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Sabadell		Villarreal B

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.1	3.9
	1.95	3.15	3.75
	1.96	3.3	4.09
	1.15	6.02	24.34	Watch
	1.93	3.3	3.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (2.21)	3.77 ↑ (3.03)	7.98 ↑ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sabadell
59.2%

Draw
27.7%

Villarreal B
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

30%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

28.9%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sabadell has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sabadell's performance.

Villarreal B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Villarreal B might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sabadell than the current prediction. (-16.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sabadell that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal B than the current prediction. (+14.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Villarreal B could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sabadell - Villarreal B Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sabadell (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Sabadell (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sabadell (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fuoli D. (G) 14. Astals D. 4. Garcia C. 5. Arthur 7. Ripoll T. 19. Lopez J. 22. Liameed Q. 20. Orriols Cerarols A. 11. Martinez R. 9. Rodri 23. Priego J.	1. Gomez R. (G) 2. Budesca D. 4. Sierra I. 6. Spatz L. M. 3. Ortiz E. 8. Diatta A. 22. Viveros F. 7. Moreno V. 28. Macia C. 19. Barry M. 9. Rubio A.
Substitutes
2. Aleman C. 17. Coscia A. 27. Estebe L. 13. Ortega J. (G) 18. Ortega J. 10. Ramirez Carrasco M. A. 21. Sergi 26. Tolosa A. 29. Utges J. 32. Vallina M. (G) 31. Zamora A.	20. Curro 14. Fores A. 26. Gaitan Diaz J. A. 30. Garcia A. 5. Gil F. 25. Kinareykin Y. (G) 11. Lopez H. 16. Pascual P. 10. Quintero L. 21. Rodriguez I. 15. Tidiane Thiam C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Rodri ⚽,
45+3', Barry M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Barry M. ↓, Quintero L. ↑,
59', Astals D. ↓, Sergi ↑,
59', Martinez R. ↓, Ramirez Carrasco M. A. ↑,
68', Viveros F. 🟨,
72', Rodri ↓, Coscia A. ↑,
75', Ortiz E. ↓, Rodriguez I. ↑,
75', Rubio A. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
82', Macia C. ↓, Lopez H. ↑,
82', Moreno V. ↓, Quim U. ↑,
84', Priego J. ↓, Utges J. ↑,
88', Orriols Cerarols A. 🟨,
89', Fuoli D. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sabadell won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Villarreal B may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Sabadell might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Sabadell won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 15:20. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Sabadell won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 1.3:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Sabadell - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 41.02%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sabadell FC
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
24.09.25	Sabadell - Cartagena	0:0 ✺
20.09.25	Algeciras - Sabadell	1:2 ✺
07.09.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Sabadell	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Sabadell - Eldense	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
23.08.25	Sabadell - Ibiza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TWTTT
- Villarreal B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
19.09.25	Real Murcia - Villarreal B	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Villarreal B - CE Europa	3:3 ✺
06.09.25	Eldense - Villarreal B	1:0 ✺
01.09.25	Villarreal B - Alcorcón	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Villarreal B - Valencia B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
26.07.23	Villarreal B - Sabadell	4:0
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
05.03.22	Villarreal B - Sabadell	0:3
01.10.21	Sabadell - Villarreal B	0:1
Club Friendly
07.08.21	Sabadell - Villarreal B	0:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
04.01.20	Villarreal B - Sabadell	2:0
17.02.19	Sabadell - Villarreal B	1:1
30.09.18	Villarreal B - Sabadell	4:1

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