Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 4

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Enrique Roca (Murcia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Real Murcia		Villarreal B

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.3	5.25
				Watch
	1.7	3.35	4.85
	1.68	3.54	5.42
	4.24	2.96	1.99	Watch
	1.72	3.38	5.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (1.91)	3.31 ↑ (3)	4.54 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Murcia
46.6%

Draw
30.9%

Villarreal B
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

29.9%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

28.9%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Villarreal B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal B than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Real Murcia - Villarreal B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gazzaniga G. (G) 2. Mier J. 6. Gonzalez A. 5. Jaso Zunzarren A. 3. Romero C. 9. Benito P. A. P. 10. Gomez I. 20. Zenitagoia E. 7. Moyita S. 11. Bustos A. 23. Bosilj D.	1. Gomez R. (G) 2. Budesca D. 4. Sierra I. 6. Spatz L. M. 3. Ortiz E. 10. Quintero L. 28. Macia C. 22. Viveros F. 8. Diatta A. 7. Moreno V. (C) 9. Rubio A.
Substitutes
16. Antonio David 31. Djanbou S. 30. Joao Pedro Palmberg 22. Juan Carlos 14. Leon P. 4. Lopez A. 19. Matheus Cadorini 26. Perez H. 13. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 29. Sarabia A. 28. Seyran M. 18. Vicente D.	19. Barry M. 33. Bonafe C. 20. Curro 30. Garcia A. 5. Gil F. 25. Kinareykin Y. (G) 11. Lopez H. 16. Pascual P. 21. Rodriguez I. 15. Tidiane Thiam C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Rubio A. ⚽, Moreno V. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Bustos A. ↓, Antonio David ↑,
46', Gomez I. ↓, Leon P. ↑,
54', Rubio A. 🟨,
61', Zenitagoia E. ↓, Juan Carlos ↑,
65', 🟨,
68', Moyita S. ↓, Joao Pedro Palmberg ↑,
68', Jaso Zunzarren A. ↓, Perez H. ↑,
90+4', 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 1, Joao Pedro Palmberg ⚽,
90+10', 🟨,

Preview

Murcia is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Villarreal B has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Villarreal B has had a series of home games.

In this match, Murcia is a strong favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Murcia won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Murcia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
14.09.25	Atlético Madrid B - Real Murcia	1:1 ✺
07.09.25	Real Murcia - Juventud de Torremolinos	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
04.09.25	Real Murcia - Elche	3:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
01.09.25	Marbella - Real Murcia	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.25	Real Murcia - Melilla	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TWWLW
- Villarreal B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
13.09.25	Villarreal B - CE Europa	3:3 ✺
06.09.25	Eldense - Villarreal B	1:0 ✺
01.09.25	Villarreal B - Alcorcón	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Villarreal B - Valencia B	1:1 ✺
13.08.25	Villarreal B - Gimnástic de Tarragona	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
27.04.25	Real Murcia - Villarreal B	1:0
27.10.24	Villarreal B - Real Murcia	0:1
Club Friendly
30.07.22	Real Murcia - Villarreal B	3:1
17.08.19	Real Murcia - Villarreal B	0:0
Spanish LaLiga2
23.03.12	Villarreal B - Real Murcia	2:0

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