Match Info

J2 League - Round 5

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Sagan Tosu		Tegevajaro Miyazaki

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.10	2.65
	2.40	2.95	2.70
	2.38	3.20	2.80	Watch
	2.68	3.10	2.90
	2.52	3.15	2.87	Watch
	2.60	3.05	2.80
	2.56	3.17	2.76	Watch
	2.45	3.00	2.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.38)	3.09 ↓ (3.2)	2.77 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
36.8%

Draw
29.9%

Tegevajaro Miyazaki
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

28.7%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

28.2%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Tegevajaro Miyazaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tegevajaro Miyazaki than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Sagan Tosu - Tegevajaro Miyazaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tosu will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Izumori R. (G) 5. Nagasawa S. 44. Abe K. 33. Ogawa S. 28. Yoshida M. 21. Toyoda A. 6. Sakurai T. 11. Shiohama R. 18. Hyon R. 16. Nishizawa K. 9. Takahashi T.	19. Matsuyama K. (G) 24. Matsumoto Y. 33. Kuroki K. 28. Manabe H. 39. Shimokawa Y. 5. Watanabe E. 8. Yamauchi R. 7. Ano M. 47. Okumura K. 99. Murakoshi K. 9. Hashimoto K.
Substitutes
4. Imazu Y. 13. Jojo K. 3. Kamiyama K. 12. Matsubara S. (G) 2. Matsumoto N. 20. Nakahara H. 8. Narahara Y. 19. Park Ho-Min 10. Suzuki D.	14. Iesaka Y. 10. Inoue R. 31. Kimura R. (G) 42. Matsumoto K. 82. Sakai S. 18. Sato R. 45. Tanaka S. 11. Toshida Y. 13. Tsutsumi S.
Coaches
Kogiku A.	Okuma Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Ogawa S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', 1 - 0, Hyon R. ⚽, Yoshida M. (A),
60', Hyon R. ↓, Nakahara H. ↑,
68', 2 - 0, Shiohama R. ⚽,
68', Ano M. ↓, Inoue R. ↑,
73', Watanabe E. ↓, Toshida Y. ↑,
77', Murakoshi K. 🟨,
82', Ogawa S. ↓, Imazu Y. ↑,
82', Takahashi T. ↓, Suzuki D. ↑,
82', Sakurai T. ↓, Matsumoto N. ↑,
88', Hashimoto K. ↓, Matsumoto K. ↑,
89', Matsumoto Y. ↓, Tsutsumi S. ↑,
90+2', Yoshida M. ↓, Kamiyama K. ↑,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tosu won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:4. (average 2.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Tosu won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 3.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	9	3	3	3	13:13	0	12
17	Sagan Tosu	9	2	2	5	8:12	-4	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Nara Club - Sagan Tosu	1:2 ✺
Japan J2 League
29.08.26	Yokohama FC - Sagan Tosu	2:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Sagan Tosu - Kataller Toyama	4:0 ✺
Japan J2 League
22.08.26	Sagan Tosu - Tochigi City	1:3 ✺
16.08.26	Tokushima Vortis - Sagan Tosu	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WTWLT
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Kataller Toyama	1:2 ✺
Japan J2 League
29.08.26	Vegalta Sendai - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	4:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Júbilo Iwata - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0:1 AET ✺
Japan J2 League
22.08.26	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Shonan Bellmare	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	Ventforet Kofu - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
02.05.26	Sagan Tosu - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2:1 penalties
21.02.26	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Sagan Tosu	2:1
Japan Emperors Cup
07.06.23	Sagan Tosu - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	5:1

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