Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 18

Date: 19 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard (Saint-Étienne)

Referee: Batta F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 9, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Voyo
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN 1, DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Caliente TV App
Montenegro	Arena Sport 9
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV4
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 9
Slovakia	Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	beIN Sports
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
World	Disney+


	Saint-Étienne		Nantes

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.25	2.45	Watch
	2.87	3.2	2.5
	2.92	3.2	2.52
	2.99	3.23	2.56	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.45
	3.04	3.33	2.59	Watch
	2.92	3.2	2.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (3.03)	3.22 ↓ (3.26)	2.51 ↑ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Étienne
32.5%

Draw
29.6%

Nantes
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

29.2%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

29.6%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Étienne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Nantes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nantes than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	20.4%	46.3%

Saint Étienne - Nantes Predictions

Users Predictions: 53 users predict this event. Saint-Étienne will win (votes: 18 - 34%). Nantes will win (votes: 24 - 45.3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 20.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nantes: 31.9% – 58.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Larsonneur G. (G) 8. Appiah D. 21. Batubinsika D. 3. Nade M. 19. Petrot L. 26. Fomba L. 6. Bouchouari B. 14. Mouton L. 63. N'Guessan D. 32. Stassin L. 22. Davitashvili Z.	16. Lopes A. (G) 98. Amian K. 4. Pallois N. 21. Castelletto J. 3. Cozza N. 5. Chirivella P. (C) 62. Guirassy B. 8. Lepenant J. 6. Augusto D. 27. Simon M. 39. Abline M.
Substitutes
5. Abdelhamid Y. 39. Aiki A. 37. Amougou M. 20. Boakye A. 18. Cafaro M. 17. Cornud P. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 28. Miladinovic I. 10. Tardieu F.	12. Acapandie M. 18. Assoumani D. 1. Carlgren P. (G) 20. Coco M. 17. Gbamin J. 13. Leroux L. 15. Mollet F. 58. Nsingi P. 11. Thomas S.
Coaches
Horneland E.	Kombouare A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Simon M. ⚽,
22', Larsonneur G. 🟨,
39', Chirivella P. 🟨,
41', Batubinsika D. 🟨,
44', Augusto D. ↓, Leroux L. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Mouton L. ↓, Tardieu F. ↑,
61', N'Guessan D. ↓, Boakye A. ↑,
71', Guirassy B. ↓, Nsingi P. ↑,
72', Simon M. ↓, Thomas S. ↑,
72', Fomba L. ↓, Amougou M. ↑,
87', 1 - 1, Boakye A. ⚽, Tardieu F. (A),
89', Nsingi P. ↓, Gbamin J. ↑,
90+1', Petrot L. ↓, Cornud P. ↑,
90+1', Bouchouari B. ↓, Miladinovic I. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Saint-Étienne won 0.

Saint-Étienne is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Nantes is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Nantes could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Nantes have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Bouchouari B. (Yellow Cards) Macon Y. (Knee Injury) Monconduit T. (Leg Injury) Moueffek A. (Illness) Old B. (Knee Injury) Sissoko I. (Red Card) Tardieu F. (Illness) Wadji I. (Injury)

There will not play in Nantes: Kadewere T. (Muscle Injury) Mahamoud A. (Knee Injury) Zeze N. (Ankle Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Saint-Étienne won 7 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 27:19 (average 1.4:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Saint-Étienne won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11:8 (average 1.1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 1
12.01.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Saint-Étienne	2:1 ✺
04.01.25	Saint-Étienne - Reims	3:1 ✺
Coupe De France
22.12.24	Saint-Étienne - Olympique Marseille	0:4 ✺
French Ligue 1
13.12.24	Toulouse - Saint-Étienne	2:1 ✺
08.12.24	Saint-Étienne - Olympique Marseille	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWLLL
- FC Nantes
Coupe De France
15.01.25	Brest - Nantes	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
10.01.25	Nantes - Monaco	2:2 ✺
04.01.25	Lille - Nantes	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
21.12.24	Drancy - Nantes	0:4 ✺
French Ligue 1
15.12.24	Brest - Nantes	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
29.09.24	Nantes - Saint-Étienne	2:2
21.05.22	Nantes - Saint-Étienne	1:1
22.12.21	Saint-Étienne - Nantes	0:1
03.02.21	Saint-Étienne - Nantes	1:1
20.09.20	Nantes - Saint-Étienne	2:2
12.01.20	Saint-Étienne - Nantes	0:2
10.11.19	Nantes - Saint-Étienne	2:3

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