Match Info

Maranhense - Round 5

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)


	Sampaio Corrêa		Luminense

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.15	5.35
	1.58	3.33	5.8
	1.59	3.39	5.89
	1.62	3	5.75
	1.56	3.32	6.27
	1.62	3.25	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.78)	3.24 ↑ (3.11)	5.79 ↑ (4.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sampaio Corrêa
56.4%

Draw
27.9%

Luminense
15.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.8%

29.6%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sampaio Corrêa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Luminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Sampaio Corrêa - Luminense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sampaio Corrêa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Sampaio Corrêa (2.11) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Sampaio Corrêa (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+1', 0 - 1, Bismarck ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Bolt D. 🟥,
55', 1 - 1, Matheus Moresche (Penalty Awarded),
83', Neto 🟥,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Maranhense (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 5).

Luminense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sampaio Corrêa is considered a favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sampaio Corrêa
Brazilian Campeonato Maranhense
21.01.26	Moto Club de São Luís - Sampaio Corrêa	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Sampaio Corrêa - Maranhão	4:2 ✺
14.01.26	Sampaio Corrêa - IAPE	0:0 ✺
10.01.26	Imperatriz de Desportos - Sampaio Corrêa	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
09.08.25	Manauara - Sampaio Corrêa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TWTTL
- Luminense AC
Brazilian Campeonato Maranhense
22.01.26	Luminense - IAPE	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Luminense - Moto Club de São Luís	0:3 ✺
14.01.26	Luminense - Imperatriz de Desportos	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Tuntum - Luminense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 LLWW

Sampaio Corrêa - Luminense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide