Match Info

TURKEY: 1. LIG - ROUND 22

Date: 30 January 2023, Monday

Location: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu (Samsun)

Referee: Cakir O. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Samsunspor		Erzurumspor

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.5	7	Watch
	1.34	4.8	7.5
	1.35	4.7	6
	1.32	4.7	7.2
	1.36	5.1	8.4
	1.3	4.4	8.5
	1.31	4.9	7.9
	1.33	4.7	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.61)	4.73 ↑ (3.77)	7.49 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Samsunspor
68.5%

Draw
19.3%

Erzurumspor
12.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

23.9%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.4%

23.4%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Samsunspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Samsunspor's performance.

Erzurumspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Erzurumspor might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (-11.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Samsunspor that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzurumspor than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Erzurumspor could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
96%	4%	0%

Samsunspor - Erzurumspor Predictions

Users Predictions: Samsunspor will win (24 of 25 users predict this - 96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 88.32% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Lig and 15).

Samsunspor is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Erzurumspor is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Erzurumspor could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Samsunspor is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Samsunspor won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Samsunspor won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Samsunspor
Turkish First League
22.01.23	Eyüpspor - Samsunspor	1:4 ✺
14.01.23	Samsunspor - Altay	2:1 ✺
25.12.22	Samsunspor - Adanaspor	2:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
21.12.22	Trabzonspor - Samsunspor	3:0 ✺
Turkish First League
17.12.22	Bodrumspor - Samsunspor	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWWLT
- Erzurumspor
Turkish First League
21.01.23	Erzurumspor - Göztepe	0:1 ✺
16.01.23	Pendikspor - Erzurumspor	1:1 ✺
25.12.22	Boluspor - Erzurumspor	3:1 ✺
18.12.22	Erzurumspor - Altınordu	2:1 ✺
11.12.22	Gençlerbirliği - Erzurumspor	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
27.08.22	Erzurumspor - Samsunspor	2:2
19.03.22	Erzurumspor - Samsunspor	1:2
23.10.21	Samsunspor - Erzurumspor	0:0
11.02.18	Samsunspor - Erzurumspor	1:0
10.09.17	Erzurumspor - Samsunspor	1:1

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