Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 1 - ROUND 29

Date: 25 March 2023, Saturday


	San Fernando		Talavera de la Reina

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.3	3.8
	1.83	3.2	3.75
	1.9	3	3.9
	1.91	3.36	4.11
	1.89	3.44	3.92
	1.87	3.35	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.17)	3.28 ↑ (2.9)	3.87 ↑ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Fernando
48.7%

Draw
27.8%

Talavera de la Reina
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

31.5%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.1%

25.5%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Fernando has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in San Fernando's performance.

Talavera de la Reina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Fernando than the current prediction. (-14.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Fernando that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Talavera de la Reina than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Talavera de la Reina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

San Fernando - Talavera de la Reina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 14 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

San Fernando could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

San Fernando will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 4 head-to-head matches San Fernando won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-2.

Including matches at home between the teams San Fernando won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD San Fernando
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.03.23	Ceuta - San Fernando	2:2 ✺
12.03.23	San Fernando - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:2 ✺
04.03.23	Celta de Vigo B - San Fernando	2:2 ✺
25.02.23	San Fernando - Real Madrid Castilla	3:2 ✺
19.02.23	Linense - San Fernando	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.8 TLTWW
- CF Talavera de la Reina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
18.03.23	Talavera de la Reina - San Sebastian Reyes	0:1 ✺
12.03.23	Mérida AD - Talavera de la Reina	1:1 ✺
05.03.23	Talavera de la Reina - Córdoba	0:0 ✺
26.02.23	Rayo Majadahonda - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
19.02.23	Talavera de la Reina - Deportivo A Coruña	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.12.22	Talavera de la Reina - San Fernando	0:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
10.11.19	San Fernando - Talavera de la Reina	1:0
31.03.19	San Fernando - Talavera de la Reina	1:2
11.11.18	Talavera de la Reina - San Fernando	0:0

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