Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 27

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Romano Jose Fouto (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	CMM TV, Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Mérida AD		Talavera de la Reina

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.25	4.2
	1.78	3.2	4.1
	1.85	3.25	4.15
	1.82	3.49	4.28
	1.79	3.59	4.3	Watch
	1.75	3.1	4
	1.74	3.34	4.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (1.81)	3.32 ↑ (3.21)	4.21 ↓ (4.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
51%

Draw
27.4%

Talavera de la Reina
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.2%

28.3%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

27%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Talavera de la Reina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Talavera de la Reina than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Mérida AD - Talavera de la Reina Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mérida AD (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Csenterics A. (G) 21. Beneit R. 4. Pareja L. 3. Lancho J. 23. Verges E. 6. Geovanny 8. Solar M. 11. Areso J. 18. Dibrani B. 7. Chiqui 9. Hallsson S.	13. Belman (G) 14. Molina A. 5. Molina S. 4. Lopez A. 2. Cuenca D. 20. Ferni 16. Navarro I. 21. Montero Sergio 6. Pitu 11. Gallardo Rodriguez E. 9. Moreno M.
Substitutes
13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 5. Dominguez J. 10. Doncel C. 14. El Ftouhi S. 12. Gomes R. 17. Herranz Corral V. 15. Martinez G. 22. Rivas M.	15. Acosta L. 23. Farrando M. 19. Gomez V. 1. Gonzalez J. (G) 24. Nordin M. 17. Ouacharaf B. 3. Roig A. 8. Sanchez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Lopez A. 🟨,
35', 🟨,
41', Gallardo Rodriguez E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Lancho J. ↓, Dominguez J. ↑,
62', Areso J. ↓, El Ftouhi S. ↑,
62', Dibrani B. ↓, Doncel C. ↑,
71', Molina S. 🟨,
74', El Ftouhi S. 🟨,
78', Solar M. ↓, Gomes R. ↑,
78', Hallsson S. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
80', Ferni ↓, Nordin M. ↑,
80', Molina A. ↓, Roig A. ↑,
87', Beneit R. 🟨,
88', 🟨,
90+1', Montero Sergio ↓, Farrando M. ↑,
90+6', Lopez A. ↓, Sanchez L. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mérida AD won 1.

Mérida AD is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Talavera has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mérida AD may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Mérida AD is considered a favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Mérida AD won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Mérida AD won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	AD Merida	6	2	0	4	9:11	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
28.02.26	Celta de Vigo B - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Mérida AD - Cacereño	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Ourense CF - Mérida AD	3:1 ✺
08.02.26	Mérida AD - Zamora	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	Real Avilés - Mérida AD	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TWLWW
- CF Talavera de la Reina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
28.02.26	Talavera de la Reina - Ferrol	3:1 ✺
20.02.26	Ponferradina - Talavera de la Reina	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Talavera de la Reina - Arenteiro	2:1 ✺
06.02.26	Barakaldo - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Talavera de la Reina - Pontevedra	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.12.25	Talavera de la Reina - Mérida AD	2:1
12.03.23	Mérida AD - Talavera de la Reina	1:1
19.10.22	Talavera de la Reina - Mérida AD	1:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
17.01.21	Talavera de la Reina - Mérida AD	0:1
18.10.20	Mérida AD - Talavera de la Reina	0:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
08.12.19	Talavera de la Reina - Mérida AD	2:1

Upcoming Matches