Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 34

Date: 27 April 2024, Saturday


	San Fernando		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.4	2.6
	2.4	3	2.65
	2.55	3.4	2.55
	2.58	3.2	2.75
	2.58	3.19	2.75
	2.53	3.11	2.74
	2.38	3.35	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.49)	3.24 ↓ (3.47)	2.67 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Fernando
37%

Draw
28.5%

Real Madrid Castilla
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

26.4%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

25.8%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Fernando has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Fernando than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

San Fernando - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Arana E. (G) 23. Ramirez J. 4. Farrando M. 5. Blanco C. 15. Ruiz V. 19. Martinez P. 10. Ramos D. 18. Naveira U. 6. Molina D. 16. Herrera C. 11. Aquino D.	1. Canizares L. (G) 4. Carrillo A. 33. Ribes E. 16. Asencio R. 19. Lorenzo 14. Gonzalez Ballesteros D. 6. Martin M. 20. Angel M. 39. Cuenca D. 10. Paz N. 9. Rodriguez A.
Substitutes
21. Arroyo N. 7. Biabiany J. 22. Davila Y. 14. Fullana F. 1. Fuoli D. (G) 26. Herrera M. 9. Ribeiro 34. Rueda A. 17. Sanchez A.	29. Aparicio E. 21. De Leon J. 24. de Luis M. (G) 23. Munoz V. 3. Obrador R. 22. Palacios C. 15. Pujol E. 2. Tobias V. 8. Zidane T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', Martin M. 🟨,
27', 0 - 1, Rodriguez A. ⚽,
45+2', 1 - 1, Canizares L. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
48', Naveira U. 🟨,
57', Ramirez J. 🟨,
61', Herrera C. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
71', Naveira U. ↓, Fullana F. ↑,
71', Martinez P. ↓, Arroyo N. ↑,
73', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
81', Ramos D. ↓, Ribeiro ↑,
82', Aquino D. ↓, Biabiany J. ↑,
85', 1 - 2, Palacios C. ⚽,
90+3', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 13).

San Fernando is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Real Madrid Castilla is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Real Madrid Castilla could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 5 head-to-head matches San Fernando won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7-11.

Including matches at home between the teams San Fernando won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD San Fernando
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
21.04.24	Granada B - San Fernando	5:0 ✺
13.04.24	San Fernando - Intercity	1:1 ✺
06.04.24	Alcoyano - San Fernando	1:1 ✺
31.03.24	San Fernando - Ibiza	1:0 ✺
23.03.24	Córdoba - San Fernando	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 LTTWL
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
20.04.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Alcoyano	3:1 ✺
14.04.24	Recreativo Huelva - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0 ✺
07.04.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Córdoba	0:2 ✺
31.03.24	Atlético Baleares - Real Madrid Castilla	0:1 ✺
23.03.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Castellón	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
03.12.23	Real Madrid Castilla - San Fernando	2:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.02.23	San Fernando - Real Madrid Castilla	3:2
20.11.22	Real Madrid Castilla - San Fernando	2:0
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
20.02.22	San Fernando - Real Madrid Castilla	3:1
04.09.21	Real Madrid Castilla - San Fernando	4:0

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