Match Info

Reserve League - Apertura - Round 16

Date: 4 June 2026, Thursday


	San Lorenzo 2		Vélez Sársfield 2

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.40	3.50	1.85
	3.20	3.25	1.98	Watch
	3.71	3.65	1.89
	3.64	3.47	1.91	Watch
	3.50	3.30	1.85
	3.71	3.71	1.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.53 ↑ (3.11)	3.48 ↑ (3.15)	1.9 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Lorenzo 2
25.8%

Draw
26.2%

Vélez Sársfield 2
48%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.5%

29.1%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.4%

28%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Lorenzo 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Vélez Sársfield 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vélez Sársfield 2's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Lorenzo 2 than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield 2 than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vélez Sársfield 2, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

San Lorenzo 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
69', 0 - 1, ⚽,
89', 🟥,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Reserve League (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Vélez 2 is Qualified for Reserve League (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Lorenzo 2 won 2.

Recent performances by San Lorenzo 2 have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vélez 2 is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

San Lorenzo 2 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Vélez 2 is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, San Lorenzo 2 won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:12. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, San Lorenzo 2 won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Lorenzo 2
Argentinian Reserve League
28.05.26	River Plate 2 - San Lorenzo 2	1:1 ✺
19.05.26	San Lorenzo 2 - Racing Club 2	1:2 ✺
14.05.26	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - San Lorenzo 2	1:2 ✺
06.05.26	San Lorenzo 2 - Argentinos Juniors 2	2:2 ✺
30.04.26	Aldosivi 2 - San Lorenzo 2	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TLWTW
- Vélez Sársfield 2
Argentinian Reserve League
27.05.26	Vélez Sársfield 2 - Instituto 2	2:3 ✺
21.05.26	Vélez Sársfield 2 - River Plate 2	1:0 ✺
12.05.26	Racing Club 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	1:1 ✺
06.05.26	Vélez Sársfield 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	4:0 ✺
29.04.26	Argentinos Juniors 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Reserve League
08.08.25	San Lorenzo 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	1:0
06.07.25	Vélez Sársfield 2 - San Lorenzo 2	3:1 ET
13.03.25	Vélez Sársfield 2 - San Lorenzo 2	2:1
18.07.24	San Lorenzo 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	2:1
08.02.24	Vélez Sársfield 2 - San Lorenzo 2	3:0
28.04.23	San Lorenzo 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	1:1
10.10.22	Vélez Sársfield 2 - San Lorenzo 2	2:0

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