Match Info

Serie D - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio José do Rego Maciel (Recife)


	Santa Cruz Recife		América RN

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.8	3.5
	1.8	2.98	4.65
	1.84	2.92	4.67
	1.78	3.06	4.75
	2	3.05	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.01)	2.96 ↓ (3.05)	4.2 ↑ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Cruz Recife
47.8%

Draw
30.6%

América RN
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

29.6%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

30.4%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Cruz Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

América RN has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América RN than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Santa Cruz Recife - América RN Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Cruz (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
87', 1 - 0, Nahuelpan A. ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Santa Cruz will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Santa Cruz won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 0.8:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Santa Cruz won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Serie D
24.08.25	Altos - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 penalties ✺
18.08.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Altos	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Sergipe	3:1 penalties ✺
03.08.25	Sergipe - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1 ✺
27.07.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Treze	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WTWLW
- América RN
Brazilian Serie D
24.08.25	América RN - Imperatriz de Desportos	0:0 ✺
17.08.25	Imperatriz de Desportos - América RN	0:1 ✺
10.08.25	América RN - Juazeirense	2:0 ✺
03.08.25	Juazeirense - América RN	1:1 ✺
27.07.25	América RN - Horizonte	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
06.07.25	América RN - Santa Cruz Recife	0:0
09.05.25	Santa Cruz Recife - América RN	2:1
Brazilian Serie B
01.11.14	Santa Cruz Recife - América RN	0:1
02.08.14	América RN - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1

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