Match Info

Serie D - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 3 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Aracaju)


	Sergipe		Santa Cruz Recife

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.6	2.7
	2.88	2.45	2.82
	2.98	2.76	2.87
	2.73	2.71	2.67
	2.64	3.02	2.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 (2.79)	2.71 ↓ (2.99)	2.71 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sergipe
32.7%

Draw
33.7%

Santa Cruz Recife
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

30.2%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

29.5%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sergipe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Santa Cruz Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sergipe than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Sergipe - Santa Cruz Recife Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Santa Cruz (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Cruz (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Matheus Sacramento ⚽,
29', 1 - 1, Geovany Soares ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 2 - 1, Rickelme ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sergipe won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Sergipe won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Sergipe
Brazilian Serie D
27.07.25	Sergipe - Jequié	1:0 ✺
20.07.25	Juazeirense - Sergipe	0:0 ✺
12.07.25	Sergipe - Lagarto	1:2 ✺
05.07.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Sergipe	2:2 ✺
28.06.25	Sergipe - Penedense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WTLTW
- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Serie D
27.07.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Treze	3:0 ✺
20.07.25	Horizonte - Santa Cruz Recife	2:0 ✺
13.07.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Santa Cruz de Natal	1:1 ✺
06.07.25	América RN - Santa Cruz Recife	0:0 ✺
29.06.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Central SC	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
05.06.22	Santa Cruz Recife - Sergipe	1:0
29.05.22	Sergipe - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1

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