Match Info
Serie D - Play Offs - 1/16-finalsDate: 9 August 2025, SaturdayLocation: Estádio José do Rego Maciel (Recife)
|
 |
|
 |
|
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Santa Cruz Recife |
|
Sergipe |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.43 |
3.75 |
7 |
|
 |
1.45 |
3.6 |
6.9 |
|
 |
1.47 |
3.53 |
7.22 |
|
 |
1.44 |
3.8 |
7.08 |
|
 |
1.54 |
3.9 |
5.25 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.47 ↓
(1.54) |
3.72 ↓
(3.85) |
6.69 ↑
(5.31) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
- The best margin for this event is 9.6%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Santa Cruz Recife
62% | Draw
24.4% | Sergipe
13.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Santa Cruz Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)Sergipe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (-6.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santa Cruz Recife that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sergipe than the current prediction. (+4.6%)Santa Cruz Recife - Sergipe Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 2', 1 - 0, Thiago Galhardo ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 55', 2 - 0, Thiago Galhardo ⚽,
- 64', 2 - 1, Felipe Para ⚽,
- Penalties (5 - 4)
- 1, Thiago Galhardo (Pen),
- 1, Felipe Para (Pen),
- 2, Ariel (Pen),
- 2, Matheus Sacramento (Pen),
- 3, Renato (Pen),
- 3, Ericeon (Pen),
- 4, Eurico (Pen),
- 4, Luan (Pen),
- 5, Thiaguinho (Pen),
- 5, Jeferson (Pen),
- 6, Pedro Favela (Pen),
- 6, (Pen),
- 7, (Pen),
- 7, (Pen),
Preview
1st leg result: 1-2. 2nd leg.Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately. In this match, Santa Cruz is the obvious favorite.In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Santa Cruz won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).Including home match between the teams, Santa Cruz won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Brazilian Serie D | | | 03.08.25 | Sergipe - Santa Cruz Recife | 2:1 | | 05.06.22 | Santa Cruz Recife - Sergipe | 1:0 | | 29.05.22 | Sergipe - Santa Cruz Recife | 1:1 |
|
Upcoming Matches
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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