Match Info

Serie D - Round 12

Date: 13 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio José do Rego Maciel (Recife)


	Santa Cruz Recife		Santa Cruz de Natal

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.7	5.5
	1.32	4.25	8.5
	1.33	4.46	8.96
	1.28	4.6	9.95
	1.64	3.6	4.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.64)	4.12 ↑ (3.6)	7.5 ↑ (4.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Cruz Recife
65.3%

Draw
22.4%

Santa Cruz de Natal
12.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

25.2%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

23.9%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Cruz Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Santa Cruz Recife's performance.

Santa Cruz de Natal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Santa Cruz de Natal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santa Cruz Recife that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz de Natal than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santa Cruz de Natal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Santa Cruz Recife - Santa Cruz de Natal Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Eduardo Brito ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+6', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 5).

Santa Cruz is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Santa Cruz de Natal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Santa Cruz is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Santa Cruz won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Serie D
06.07.25	América RN - Santa Cruz Recife	0:0 ✺
29.06.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Central SC	0:1 ✺
15.06.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Sousa	2:0 ✺
08.06.25	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Santa Cruz Recife	3:1 ✺
01.06.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviário Fortaleza	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TLWLW
- Santa Cruz de Natal
Brazilian Serie D
06.07.25	Central SC - Santa Cruz de Natal	1:0 ✺
28.06.25	Santa Cruz de Natal - América RN	1:2 ✺
19.06.25	Treze - Santa Cruz de Natal	1:2 ✺
07.06.25	Santa Cruz de Natal - Horizonte	1:0 ✺
01.06.25	Horizonte - Santa Cruz de Natal	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
03.05.25	Santa Cruz de Natal - Santa Cruz Recife	0:0

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