Match Info

Serie D - Round 10

Date: 29 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio José do Rego Maciel (Recife)


	Santa Cruz Recife		Central SC

	1	X	2
	1.36	3.9	7.69
	1.37	3.95	8.55
	1.45	3.9	5.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.47)	3.92 ↓ (4)	7.33 ↑ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Cruz Recife
64.7%

Draw
23%

Central SC
12.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

22.5%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.5%

22.1%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Cruz Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Central SC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Central SC than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Santa Cruz Recife - Central SC Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
72', Matheus Vinicius 🟥,
78', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santa Cruz won 5.

Now, both teams are in good form.

In this match, Santa Cruz is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Santa Cruz will win today's game, with odds of 1.45.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Santa Cruz won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 30:9. (average 1.9:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Santa Cruz won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 18:4. (average 2:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Serie D
15.06.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Sousa	2:0 ✺
08.06.25	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Santa Cruz Recife	3:1 ✺
01.06.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviário Fortaleza	3:1 ✺
25.05.25	Sousa - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 ✺
18.05.25	Central SC - Santa Cruz Recife	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WLWWW
- Central SC
Brazilian Serie D
15.06.25	Horizonte - Central SC	1:1 ✺
08.06.25	Central SC - Treze	1:0 ✺
31.05.25	Treze - Central SC	0:3 ✺
25.05.25	Central SC - Horizonte	1:0 ✺
18.05.25	Central SC - Santa Cruz Recife	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
18.05.25	Central SC - Santa Cruz Recife	1:2
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
16.02.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Central SC	2:1
02.03.24	Santa Cruz Recife - Central SC	1:0
24.02.24	Central SC - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1
25.03.23	Santa Cruz Recife - Central SC	3:1
03.03.21	Central SC - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1
16.02.20	Central SC - Santa Cruz Recife	0:0

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