Match Info

Challenge League - Round 5

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Santa Lucia		Naxxar Lions

	1	X	2
	3.50	3.40	1.85
	3.60	3.35	1.82
	3.52	3.68	1.86	Watch
	3.15	3.40	1.85
	3.50	3.70	1.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.45 ↓ (3.6)	3.51 ↑ (3.35)	1.86 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Lucia
26%

Draw
25.6%

Naxxar Lions
48.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

24.7%

26.5%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Lucia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Naxxar Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Santa Lucia - Naxxar Lions Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
42', 1 - 0, Nakov A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+4', 1 - 1, Farias E. ⚽,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 11th in the Challenge League (Relegation Group: ) and 2nd in the Promotion - Challenge League (Promotion Group: )).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Naxxar holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Santa Lucia has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 14:8 (averaging 2.8:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Santa Lucia against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 5:1 goals (averaging 2.5:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Naxxar	5	3	1	1	10:7	3	10
11	Santa Lucia	5	0	5	0	3:3	0	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Lucia FC
Maltese Challenge League
17.10.26	Fgura United - Santa Lucia	0:0 ✺
11.10.26	Santa Lucia - Żurrieq	1:1 ✺
18.09.26	St. Andrews - Santa Lucia	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Santa Lucia - Vittoriosa Stars	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Mtarfa - Santa Lucia	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TTTTL
- Naxxar Lions
Maltese Challenge League
18.10.26	Naxxar Lions - Victoria Hotspurs	1:0 ✺
10.10.26	Sirens - Naxxar Lions	2:3 ✺
20.09.26	Naxxar Lions - Żebbuġ Rangers	3:1 ✺
12.09.26	Pietà Hotspurs - Naxxar Lions	3:2 ✺
Maltese Premier League
10.05.26	Naxxar Lions - Mosta	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
17.02.24	Santa Lucia - Naxxar Lions	1:0
01.10.23	Naxxar Lions - Santa Lucia	4:0
Club Friendly
01.09.23	Naxxar Lions - Santa Lucia	1:7
Maltese Challenge League
17.02.19	Naxxar Lions - Santa Lucia	2:2
30.09.18	Santa Lucia - Naxxar Lions	4:1

Santa Lucia - Naxxar Lions