Match Info

Premier League - Relegation - Final

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Ta'Qali National Stadium (Ta' Qali)

Referee: Zammit F. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Naxxar Lions		Mosta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.21	3.35	3.1
	2.13	3.52	3.01	Watch
	2.1	3.3	2.9
	2.18	3.64	2.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.09)	3.45 ↑ (3.41)	2.97 ↓ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Naxxar Lions
42.5%

Draw
26.6%

Mosta
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

27%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

26.7%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Naxxar Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Mosta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Naxxar Lions than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mosta than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Naxxar Lions - Mosta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Debono M. (G) 10. Farias E. (C) 14. Gauci C. 5. Gustavo Felipe 33. Joao Moura 8. Pace Cocks N. 9. Pahama N. 19. Rosiel 4. Theo Kruger 24. Vinicius Baiano 11. Vitinho	22. Udoh A. (G) 3. Bolanos M. 26. Emmanuel P. 10. Giancarlo 23. Kozic A. 96. Leo Fernandes 41. Pedro Cacho 7. Portelli N. 74. Vassallo J. (C) 11. Zammit K. II 42. Zibo S.
Substitutes
80. Azzopardi J. (G) 26. Borg J. 17. Bugeja F. 13. Bugeja S. 20. Costa Goncalves G. 7. Fenech M. 30. Guehi S. 22. Kontchou C. 21. Micallef M. 25. Portelli O. 99. Vella A. (G)	21. Agius 5. Cachia S. 20. Caruana R. 9. Diamanka C. 33. Farrugia B. 99. Farrugia J. (G) 4. Farrugia K. 13. Luke U. 29. Oderinde C. 94. Vassallo S. 31. Willian
Coaches
Muscat W.	Grech J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Kozic A. ⚽,
43', Leo Fernandes 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Bugeja F. 🟨,
60', Kozic A. ↓, Willian ↑,
64', Gauci C. ↓, Costa Goncalves G. ↑,
64', Theo Kruger ↓, Micallef M. ↑,
70', Udoh A. 🟨,
74', Pedro Cacho 🟨,
75', Bugeja F. 🟨,
82', Agius 🟨,
82', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Naxxar won 2.

Recent form of Naxxar has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Mosta has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mosta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Naxxar could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Naxxar won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 29:23. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Naxxar won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:4. (average 1.7:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Mosta	5	3	1	1	7:5	2	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Naxxar Lions
Maltese Premier League
02.05.26	Marsaxlokk - Naxxar Lions	3:2 ✺
26.04.26	Gżira United - Naxxar Lions	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Hamrun Spartans - Naxxar Lions	3:0 ✺
15.04.26	Naxxar Lions - Valletta	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Naxxar Lions - Floriana	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LTLTL
- Mosta FC
Maltese Premier League
30.04.26	Birkirkara - Mosta	1:1 ✺
24.04.26	Paola Hibernians - Mosta	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Mosta - Sliema Wanderers	2:2 ✺
15.04.26	Mosta - Żabbar St. Patrick	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Tarxien Rainbows - Mosta	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
04.02.26	Naxxar Lions - Mosta	5:0
19.12.25	Mosta - Naxxar Lions	2:3
29.10.25	Mosta - Naxxar Lions	3:0
Club Friendly
11.07.25	Mosta - Naxxar Lions	2:1
Maltese Premier League
02.02.25	Mosta - Naxxar Lions	1:0
23.08.24	Naxxar Lions - Mosta	2:1
20.01.24	Naxxar Lions - Mosta	0:0

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