Match Info

Reserve League - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Sarmiento de Junín 2		River Plate 2

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.6	3.2	1.92
	3.76	3.34	1.95
	3.71	3.39	1.91	Watch
	3.75	3	1.91
	3.99	3.2	1.86
	4.25	3.5	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.84 ↓ (4.25)	3.27 ↓ (3.5)	1.87 ↑ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarmiento de Junín 2
23.6%

Draw
27.8%

River Plate 2
48.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.9%

25.4%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.1%

24.4%

55.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarmiento de Junín 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

River Plate 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarmiento de Junín 2 than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate 2 than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that River Plate 2 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sarmiento de Junín 2 - River Plate 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, ⚽,
38', 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
53', 1 - 1, ⚽,
54', 1 - 2, ⚽,
59', 2 - 2, ⚽,
67', 2 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 8).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, River Plate 2 is a strong favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sarmiento 2 won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Sarmiento 2 won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

River Plate 2 - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 53.62%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarmiento de Junín 2
Argentinian Reserve League
22.04.26	Atlético de Rafaela 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	0:1 ✺
14.04.26	Racing Club 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	1:1 ✺
09.04.26	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Instituto 2	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Argentinos Juniors 2	0:1 ✺
25.03.26	Aldosivi 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTTLL
- River Plate 2
Argentinian Reserve League
22.04.26	Boca Juniors 2 - River Plate 2	2:0 ✺
16.04.26	River Plate 2 - Argentinos Juniors 2	0:0 ✺
09.04.26	Aldosivi 2 - River Plate 2	0:2 ✺
02.04.26	River Plate 2 - Gimnasia La Plata 2	0:3 ✺
26.03.26	Unión Santa Fe 2 - River Plate 2	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Reserve League
01.10.25	River Plate 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	2:0
30.04.25	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - River Plate 2	2:2
16.03.23	River Plate 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	1:0
30.07.22	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - River Plate 2	0:1
29.04.22	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - River Plate 2	1:2

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