Match Info

Reserve League - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 8 October 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	HBO Max, LPF Play, TNT Sports


	Sarmiento de Junín 2		Vélez Sársfield 2

	1	X	2
	4.20	3.50	1.68
	4	3.35	1.72
	4.66	3.45	1.73
	4.48	3.5	1.73	Watch
	4.55	3.35	1.67
	5.1	3.6	1.57
	4.1	3.5	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.44 ↑ (3.3)	3.46 ↑ (3.2)	1.69 ↓ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarmiento de Junín 2
20.4%

Draw
26.1%

Vélez Sársfield 2
53.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.9%

27.8%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.3%

27.2%

46.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarmiento de Junín 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sarmiento de Junín 2's form might have worsened.

Vélez Sársfield 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vélez Sársfield 2's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarmiento de Junín 2 than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sarmiento de Junín 2, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield 2 than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vélez Sársfield 2, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 6th and 4th in the Promotion - Reserve League (Clausura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals)).

In recent outings, Sarmiento 2 has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Vélez 2 is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

In this matchup, Vélez 2 is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Sarmiento 2 has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:12 (averaging 0.2:2.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sarmiento 2 against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 0:3 goals (averaging 0:1.5 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarmiento de Junín 2
Argentinian Reserve League
01.10.26	River Plate 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	1:0 ✺
23.09.26	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Atlético de Rafaela 2	3:1 ✺
15.09.26	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Racing Club 2	0:1 ✺
09.09.26	Instituto 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	2:2 ✺
01.09.26	Argentinos Juniors 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWLTT
- Vélez Sársfield 2
Argentinian Reserve League
01.10.26	Vélez Sársfield 2 - Argentinos Juniors 2	1:1 ✺
22.09.26	Vélez Sársfield 2 - Ferro 2	4:0 ✺
15.09.26	Aldosivi 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	0:1 ✺
08.09.26	Vélez Sársfield 2 - Gimnasia La Plata 2	0:0 ✺
01.09.26	Unión Santa Fe 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Reserve League
06.05.26	Vélez Sársfield 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	4:0
08.10.25	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	0:1
06.05.25	Vélez Sársfield 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	2:0
16.07.23	Vélez Sársfield 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	3:1
20.08.22	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	0:2

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