Match Info

MALTA: Challenge League - Relegation Group - Round 1

Date: 16 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Victor Tedesco Stadium (Hamrun)


	Senglea Athletic		Mtarfa

	1	X	2
	2.43	3.35	2.55
	2.35	3.32	2.56
	2.47	3.34	2.61
	2.42	3.2	2.6
	2.43	3.35	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.08)	3.31 ↑ (3.27)	2.57 ↓ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Senglea Athletic
37.4%

Draw
27.4%

Mtarfa
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

27.9%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

27.2%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Senglea Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Senglea Athletic's form might have worsened.

Mtarfa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mtarfa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Senglea Athletic than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Senglea Athletic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mtarfa than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mtarfa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Senglea Athletic - Mtarfa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Mintoff S. (G) 9. Attram G. T. 22. Cini A. 8. Douglas Lukaku 81. Farrugia I. 6. Fenech T. 17. McKay L. 30. Meilak S. (C) 11. Nakov A. 7. Rudy Cassar J. 99. Tweneboa B.	1. Tabone F. (C) 97. Agbakwuru J. C. 17. Cutajar C. 5. Dalli C. 10. Falzon D. 22. Fenech K. P. 6. Grech L. 9. Hassan J. 4. Matheus Freitas 14. Senna Azzopardi A. 23. Tonna R.
Substitutes
28. Bonello K. 3. Buttigieg N. 10. Cutajar R. 4. Gatt M. 1. Grech J. 25. Ngom M. L. 20. Sammut P. P. 19. Vella E. 18. Vella K.	8. Azzopardi A. 15. Azzopardi A. 3. Azzopardi Z. 12. Catania Gilson A. (G) 88. Chetcuti J. 7. Galea K. 13. Micallef M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
20', Cutajar C. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Rudy Cassar J. ⚽,
31', Fenech K. P. 🟨,
40', 2 - 0, Dalli C. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 2 - 1, Matheus Freitas ⚽,
55', Falzon D. ↓, Azzopardi A. ↑,
56', Meilak S. 🟨,
63', Farrugia I. ↓, Vella K. ↑,
67', Cini A. 🟨,
68', 2 - 2, Hassan J. ⚽,
69', Senna Azzopardi A. 🟨,
71', Nakov A. ↓, Sammut P. P. ↑,
75', Dalli C. ↓, Azzopardi Z. ↑,
75', Cutajar C. ↓, Micallef M. ↑,
79', Mintoff S. ↓, Grech J. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 2, Tweneboa B. ⚽,

Preview

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Mtarfa could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Senglea will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Senglea won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1

Including matches at home between the teams Senglea won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Senglea Athletic
Maltese Challenge League
08.02.25	Senglea Athletic - Santa Lucia	1:3 ✺
02.02.25	Senglea Athletic - Żurrieq	1:3 ✺
26.01.25	Sirens - Senglea Athletic	1:2 ✺
18.01.25	Senglea Athletic - Lija Athletic	2:3 ✺
05.01.25	Mġarr United - Senglea Athletic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LLWLL
- Mtarfa FC
Maltese Challenge League
09.02.25	Gudja United - Mtarfa	3:1 ✺
02.02.25	Mtarfa - Valletta	0:2 ✺
25.01.25	Żebbuġ Rangers - Mtarfa	4:1 ✺
19.01.25	St. Andrews - Mtarfa	0:1 ✺
04.01.25	Mtarfa - Marsa	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
28.09.24	Senglea Athletic - Mtarfa	2:1

Senglea Athletic - Mtarfa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide