Match Info

Serie D - Round 6

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Serra Branca		Lagarto

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.39	5.13
	1.68	3.3	5.34	Watch
	1.62	3.3	5
	1.61	3.42	5.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.77)	3.35 ↑ (3.2)	5.2 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Serra Branca
55.4%

Draw
27.1%

Lagarto
17.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.9%

28.7%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

28.1%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Serra Branca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Lagarto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Serra Branca than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lagarto than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Serra Branca - Lagarto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Serra Branca is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lagarto is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Serra Branca is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Serra Branca won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Serra Branca EC
Brazilian Serie D
02.05.26	Lagarto - Serra Branca	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Treze - Serra Branca	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Serra Branca - Decisão	3:0 ✺
12.04.26	Retrô Brasil - Serra Branca	2:2 ✺
05.04.26	Serra Branca - Sergipe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WTWTT
- Lagarto FC
Brazilian Serie D
02.05.26	Lagarto - Serra Branca	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Sergipe - Lagarto	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	Lagarto - Retrô Brasil	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Lagarto - Treze	5:4 ✺
05.04.26	Decisão - Lagarto	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
02.05.26	Lagarto - Serra Branca	1:2

Serra Branca - Lagarto