Match Info

Serie D - Round 1

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday


	Serra Branca		Sergipe

	1	X	2
	1.34	4.52	8.65	Watch
	2.15	2.7	3.4
	2.09	2.86	3.67
	2.19	2.94	3.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.43)	3.26 ↑ (3.2)	4.75 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Serra Branca
49.9%

Draw
29.8%

Sergipe
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

28.4%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

30.8%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Serra Branca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Serra Branca's performance.

Sergipe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sergipe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Serra Branca than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Serra Branca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sergipe than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sergipe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Serra Branca - Sergipe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Diego Ceara ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', 1 - 1, Matheus Neris ⚽,

Preview

Serra Branca is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Sergipe has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Serra Branca has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Serra Branca EC
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
07.03.26	Botafogo PB - Serra Branca	3:1 ✺
01.03.26	Serra Branca - Botafogo PB	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Botafogo PB - Serra Branca	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
18.02.26	Porto SC - Serra Branca	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
14.02.26	Campinense - Serra Branca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWTLL
- CS Sergipe
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
14.03.26	Sergipe - Confiança	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Confiança - Sergipe	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Sergipe - América de Propriá	2:1 penalties ✺
26.02.26	América de Propriá - Sergipe	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Lagarto - Sergipe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WTWTL

Serra Branca - Sergipe: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide