Match Info

Carioca B1 - Round 8

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday


	Serrano FC		Petrópolis

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.1	2.3
	2.65	3.13	2.56	Watch
	2.88	3.08	2.35
	2.85	3.1	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↓ (2.85)	3.1 (3.1)	2.39 ↑ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Serrano FC
32.5%

Draw
29.3%

Petrópolis
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

29.3%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

29.8%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Serrano FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Petrópolis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Serrano FC than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Petrópolis than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Serrano FC - Petrópolis Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
38', 1 - 0, ⚽,
45+2', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca B1 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Petrópolis may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Serrano won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Serrano won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Serrano FC Petrópolis
Brazilian Carioca B1
18.10.25	Carapebus Campos - Serrano FC	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Niteroiense - Serrano FC	1:3 ✺
27.09.25	Serrano FC - Paduano	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Friburguense - Serrano FC	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Serrano FC - Duque de Caxias	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 TWLLW
- Petrópolis FC
Brazilian Carioca B1
18.10.25	Petrópolis - São Cristóvão	0:1 ✺
11.10.25	Petrópolis - Carapebus Campos	3:0 ✺
04.10.25	Nova Cidade - Petrópolis	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Petrópolis - Niteroiense	2:3 ✺
20.09.25	Paduano - Petrópolis	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca 2
20.07.24	Serrano FC - Petrópolis	0:1
Brazilian Copa Rio
20.09.23	Petrópolis - Serrano FC	0:2 penalties
14.09.23	Serrano FC - Petrópolis	1:2
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca 2
10.10.20	Petrópolis - Serrano FC	1:1

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