Match Info

I Liqa - Round 18

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday


	Shahdag Qusar		MOIK Baku

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.65	3.8
	1.76	3.63	3.81
	1.75	3.46	4.28	Watch
	1.8	3.5	3.6
	1.7	3.62	4.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (2.24)	3.57 ↑ (3.53)	3.94 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shahdag Qusar
51.8%

Draw
25.3%

MOIK Baku
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

25.6%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

24.5%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shahdag Qusar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Shahdag Qusar's performance.

MOIK Baku has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and MOIK Baku might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shahdag Qusar than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shahdag Qusar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for MOIK Baku than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that MOIK Baku could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Shahdag Qusar - MOIK Baku Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Shahdag (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Veysov E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
82', Asurov Y. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 1, Faracov S. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 5 and 7).

Shahdag is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

MOIK has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Shahdag could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Shahdag won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Sahdag Qusar	4	4	0	0	13:1	12	12
5	MOIK Baku	3	1	1	1	3:2	1	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shahdag Qusar
Azerbaijan First Division
05.03.26	Şəfa - Shahdag Qusar	2:1 ✺
25.02.26	Shahdag Qusar - Zagatala	1:0 ✺
19.02.26	Shimal - Shahdag Qusar	0:1 ✺
12.02.26	Shahdag Qusar - Cəbrayıl	4:2 ✺
06.02.26	Shahdag Qusar - Difai Ağsu	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LWWWW
- MOIK Baku
Azerbaijan First Division
06.03.26	MOIK Baku - Difai Ağsu	2:1 ✺
25.02.26	Mingachevir - MOIK Baku	2:0 ✺
18.02.26	MOIK Baku - Səbail	1:0 ✺
12.02.26	Baku Sporting - MOIK Baku	2:0 ✺
05.02.26	Cəbrayıl - MOIK Baku	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan First Division
11.09.25	MOIK Baku - Shahdag Qusar	1:2

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