Match Info

I Liqa - Round 11

Date: 18 December 2025, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Shahdag Qusar		Səbail

	1	X	2
				Watch
	5.5	3.9	1.49
	5.05	3.71	1.53
	4.82	4.75	1.48	Watch
	5.5	3.4	1.53
	5.93	3.75	1.5	Watch
	5	3.66	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.3 ↓ (6.4)	3.86 ↓ (3.95)	1.51 ↑ (1.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shahdag Qusar
17%

Draw
23.3%

Səbail
59.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.2%

23%

62.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.6%

22.1%

65.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shahdag Qusar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Səbail has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shahdag Qusar than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Səbail than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Səbail could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Shahdag Qusar - Səbail Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Bagirov S. ⚽,
27', 1 - 1, Agalarov S. ⚽,
35', 2 - 1, Voronsov R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
69', 2 - 2, Haziyev B. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Recent form of Shahdag has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Səbail has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Səbail may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Səbail has had a series of home games.

In this match, Səbail is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Shahdag won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shahdag Qusar
Azerbaijan First Division
10.12.25	Baku Sporting - Shahdag Qusar	2:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
02.12.25	Shahdag Qusar - Turan Tovuz	1:2 ✺
Azerbaijan First Division
27.11.25	Shahdag Qusar - Şəfa	0:2 ✺
20.11.25	Zagatala - Shahdag Qusar	1:0 ✺
06.11.25	Shahdag Qusar - Shimal	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLW
- Səbail FK
Azerbaijan First Division
11.12.25	Səbail - Difai Ağsu	3:0 ✺
27.11.25	Səbail - Cəbrayıl	0:2 ✺
21.11.25	Baku Sporting - Səbail	0:0 ✺
05.11.25	Səbail - MOIK Baku	1:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
29.10.25	Səbail - Shamakhi	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan First Division
24.09.25	Səbail - Shahdag Qusar	2:0

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